A NUCLEAR DEAL WITH THE UNITED STATES WILL NOT SAVE INDIA FROM AN ENERGY DEFICIT

In terms of energy security, China is ahead of us. We can't take this lightly anymore," Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said two years ago. Little has changed since then. Power outages and night blackouts occur with depressing regularity in large and small cities. This negatively affects not only the mood of people, but also the business climate in the country. It is not surprising that the government is looking for opportunities to diversify its energy supply sources, in particular by getting gas from neighboring countries.

A proposal to connect Iran's South Pars gas field with consumers in India has been discussed in Tehran, Delhi and Islamabad for more than a decade. Pakistan has become a full participant in these discussions because a gas pipeline is planned to be laid through its territory. But until recently, due to the fact that India and Pakistan sometimes came to the brink of war, the project was considered unrealistic. However, the improvement of relations between the eternal rivals allowed it to revive. Manmohan Singh and Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz at talks held on the sidelines of an international conference in Delhi in April this year, confirmed their desire to lay the "pipe".

The length of the "pipe" is 2,600 km, and construction costs will amount to at least $ 8 billion. In addition, it must pass through the Pakistani province of Balochistan, which is gripped by a separatist insurgency. This means that the political risks are considerable. However, if the project works, India will receive 150 million cubic meters of gas daily, according to preliminary estimates. However, some of the supplies will also go to Pakistan, which will also receive foreign currency payments as a transit state. It turns out that the gas pipeline is beneficial to all its participants.

It is characteristic that Indian and Pakistani officials link the fate of this initiative with Russia. Indian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anand Sharma said that India would like to involve Gazprom in the construction, as it is very interested in cooperation with Russia in the energy sector. And according to the Pakistani Prime Minister, in this case, Russian companies can even count on a share of shares in the future enterprise. The Gazprom representative's reaction to these proposals was cautious. Our gas giant will make a decision after reviewing the results of the Pakistani feasibility study.

OVERSEAS DISSATISFIED

However, Moscow at this stage is not in a position to influence the fate of the" peace gas pipeline", as it was dubbed in Delhi and Islamabad. After all, the United States intervened in the game. US Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman visited Delhi. In conversations "at the highest levels of the Indian government," as Bodman himself put it, he stressed that the United States opposes the construction of the gas pipeline. Washington is convinced that Tehran will use the additional revenue to build nuclear weapons and support terrorism in the world. Similar warnings were issued in no uncertain terms to Pakistan.

Both Delhi and Islamabad should be extremely interested in US support at this time. There are difficult negotiations between the Indians and the Americans on the entry into force of the agreement on cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear energy. If they are completed successfully, then, according to the terms of the agreement, India will gain access to American nuclear technologies, will be able to conclude deals with American companies on the construction of nuclear power plants, as well as on expanding cooperation in the military-technical field. Pakistan is also promised US military assistance, in particular, in updating the aging fleet of combat aircraft.

And yet, India and Pakistan proclaim that they are not going to abandon the project. This could be seen as a challenge to Washington. If not for one "but". In fact, it is impossible to start implementing the project due to the fact that the neighbors cannot agree on gas fees and transit conditions. As reported by the Indian newspaper "Age", the Indian Oil Minister pointed out in an interview with the Pakistani prime Minister that transit states that themselves use gas from the pipeline usually do not receive payment for pumping. However, the Pakistani side rejected this argument and demanded that it be paid $ 200 million annually. In response, the Indians offered 60 million rubles, which did not suit Pakistan at all.

Other schemes are also being discussed. Pakistan, according to the IranMania website, is ready to build a gas pipeline on its own land, bring it to the border with India and charge it a commission of 10% of the gas price. The outcome of the auction is still impossible to predict.

SEARCH FOR THE OIL "EL DORADO"

If hopes for Iranian gas are ephemeral, then maybe India will be able to cover at least part of the energy deficit by developing oil production? Speaking to businessmen, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee noted that with the economy growing at a rate of 10% per year, the demand for energy resources will also increase on a similar scale. "But the situation here does not look favorable. We meet 70% of our oil needs through imports."

India today has become, along with China, one of the locomotives driving the growth of the global economy. But in terms of providing oil, as the head of the Indian government admitted, it lags behind China. After all, China imports from 30% to 40% of the oil consumed, and the rest is extracted by itself. China's proven reserves, according to the Asia Times website, amount to $ 18 billion. India has only 5 billion barrels. Not surprising

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It is clear that Delhi is increasingly looking for sources of supplies abroad. In this regard, the importance of relations with Russia is increasing. So far, India has taken part in the development of the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project. Its investment is $ 1 billion. But the full return on the project is a matter of the future. Besides, as Lydia Powell, director of the Energy Projects think tank in Delhi, told me, even though India's oil industry was created with the help of the Soviet Union, no refinery in the country is capable of processing Russian oil. Therefore, the Indians will exchange Sakhalin oil for oil produced in other regions.

Meanwhile, the lack of electricity is felt by almost every resident of India.

- Maybe the key to solving the problem is the development of nuclear energy? I ask Lydia Powell. This industry, she says, now accounts for less than 3% of electricity production. In the future, this figure may grow to 7-8%. No more than that.

"But," I remind you, " the Indian press and officials, during President George W. Bush's visit to Delhi in 2006, claimed that the nuclear deal with the United States was a historic breakthrough...

The interviewee does not agree with this assessment at all. From the energy point of view, this agreement does not make much sense. America was breaking through it, because India is an attractive market for American companies. However, it is possible that this was primarily a political deal. In the interests of the military.

ELECTRICITY FOR FREE

A grim picture looms. Neither the construction of nuclear power plants, nor external sources of energy supply, in the struggle for which India is losing to China, do not promise a radical solution to the problem. The question arises: how is the government going to maintain the current growth rate against the background of a chronic shortage in electricity supply? The answer, according to the expert, is that India has rich reserves of coal, albeit of poor quality. 80% of power plants run on coal. And over the next two or three decades, nothing will change here. But even relying on coal mining, it is possible to meet the planned GDP growth rates of 8-9% per year.

The main gap in ensuring the country's energy security is that the companies that supply electricity are bankrupt, because they do not receive money from the consumer. This means that they are not able to invest in generating capacity and transmitting electricity.

The energy sector, Powell notes, has become a political hostage. The central government and, to a certain extent, the state authorities strictly control the prices of electricity and gas. When a state has an election coming up, its government sometimes announces that electricity will be provided to farmers for free. Naturally, this leads to huge losses for suppliers.

The situation is similar with gasoline and other types of motor fuel. Since oil prices on the world market have jumped, it would be logical to expect that gasoline will also rise in price. But for the government, with a general election looming, that would be suicide. 80-90% of gas stations operate under his control. And prices remain at the same level. State-owned oil companies suffer losses as a result, but the government compensates for them at the taxpayer's expense.

IF THE GANGES BECOMES SHALLOW

This is a political game. But how long can it last? According to Lydia Powell, funds for infrastructure development in the country (in the amount of 50 - 60 billion dollars) will appear when Delhi decides to liberalize prices in the energy sector.

State control also discourages foreign investors. According to the expert, it is for this reason that Gazprom and other Russian companies are taking a wait-and-see attitude and are not active in India. Western firms such as Shell and British Hydro are set up differently. They work in the current environment and advocate for the government to change its approach and agree to relax the rules in the interests of private businesses. And it is possible that the authorities will eventually give in.

While parliamentarians and experts in India are debating what energy policy should be, the UN has prepared a report on the consequences of global warming. One of the conclusions of the report is that the impact of the greenhouse effect will primarily affect poor countries.

For India, the threat is that the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, which feed water to the great Ganges, will accelerate. If the Ganges becomes shallow, it will inevitably affect the 400 million people living on the banks of the river. Farmers will not be able to irrigate the fields. But low-grade coal-fired power plants pollute the atmosphere the most with carbon dioxide. So, India, as well as China, will still have to reduce the use of coal?

This will not happen, experts predict. India will not sign any international agreements limiting industrial emissions into the atmosphere. This would be tantamount to abandoning the accelerated pace of economic development.

V. SKOSYREV, Delhi - Moscow

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