M. O. RYAZANOVA

Graduate student

MGIMO (U) of the Russian Foreign Ministry

The development of the country's economic policy and the development of its fundamental directions are directly related to ensuring the state's energy security. For each of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) that belong to the group of "emerging markets", and therefore invest in the development of the economy, energy security is of strategic importance.

Keywords: India, energy security, BRICS, planned development, public policy

The general characteristic of block participants is their resource dependence. It has two vectors. The first one determines the development of energy importing or consuming countries-India, China, and South Africa. The second is Brazil and Russia, which pursue export-oriented energy policies.

Today, India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, including among the BRICS countries. According to the IMF, its GDP growth rate in 2015 was 7.3%¹. At the same time, taking the second place in the world in terms of population after China-1.3 billion people, India has only 0.5% of the world's hydrocarbon reserves. Its economy depends on external sources for 30% of its needs for coal and more than 40% for natural gas, and 70% on imports of petroleum products2.

The urgent need to attract foreign investment in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) in the absence of a developed and well-established institutional structure, a single body for the development and implementation of energy policy at the external and internal levels makes the issue of ensuring the country's energy security a top priority for the Government of India and puts it on the same level as ensuring food security.

Until 1990, the Indian leadership was more focused only on electrifying large households and making energy available to the population in less developed remote areas of the country. Despite all possible attempts to solve this problem, seeing energy poverty as one of the obstacles to economic development, about 25% of the demand of the growing population of the country is still not met.

ENERGY POLICY

The main directions of India's energy policy, including measures to ensure its energy security, at the state level are set out in such documents as the 12th five-year Plan (2012-2017), the Integrated Energy Policy 2008, the Strategy for the Development of the Indian Oil and Gas Sector until 2025 and the National Action Plan to Combat Climate Change.

Summarizing them, we can identify the following priority tasks in the field of energy today: electrification and increasing the level of energy availability for the population, ensuring energy security, improving the energy efficiency of the country's economy* and addressing topical issues of combating climate change.

The system of state legislative work and strategic planning in India, including in the field of energy, is built on the foundation laid by the first Prime Minister, J. R. R. Tolkien.Nehru after the country's independence in 1947. Adhering to the position of state intervention in the economy, J. Nehru recognized the need to develop the private sector and support small businesses. Many of the conceptual elements laid down by J. R. R. Tolkien include: Nehru, preserved to this day. These include economic planning, inclusive development, and the pursuit of self-sufficiency in key types of resources.

Since 1951 and up to the present day, government regulation of the Indian economy has been carried out through the development and implementation of five-year plans for socio-economic development, including, among others, energy and energy security issues. The coordinating role in this process has been played for many years by the Planned Co-

* Energy efficiency - reducing the energy intensity of the country's GDP by reducing the specific costs of fuel and energy resources used to produce final products at the same level of technology development, i.e. energy efficiency (author's note).

Mission transformed in January 2015 into NITI Aayog - National Transformation Institute of India (NITI)³. Its Chairman is the Prime Minister of the country, now N. D. Modi.

In December 2012, the 12th five-year plan for the period 2012-2017 was submitted to the Indian Parliament. Its launch coincided with the crisis phenomena in the national economy. Thus, in 2010/2011, the economic growth rate slowed down to 6.2% compared to 8% in 2007/2008. This was caused by a decrease in the inflow of foreign investment into the economy, a low level of infrastructure development, primarily in the energy sector, a deterioration in the business climate, low competition in the domestic consumer market, and an increase in the inflation rate.

The defining goal of the 12th Five-year plan is to achieve India's economic growth rate of 8% by 2017 and implement structural changes in key areas, including energy.⁴

The main objectives of India's energy security policy outlined in the 12th five-year plan are::

- increased production of coal, oil and other resources;

- ensuring a stable and attractive business environment for foreign investors, including updating the legislative framework, primarily in the oil and gas sectors;

- increase financing of Indian energy projects abroad, primarily in the field of coal, oil, gas and uranium production;

- creation of new capacities for storage of imported resources (currently available capacities of up to 5 million tons are not fully used) ⁵.

A comprehensive document defining the country's policy framework in this area is the Integrated Energy Policy 2008. Approved by the government in 2008, the document " is a generalized concept that defines the areas of activity for the extraction, production and use of various forms of energy from various sources. It includes specific recommendations on a wide range of issues", the application of which "in practice in the near future will give a significant impetus to the development of the economy along the path of stable and higher growth rates". The goal is to achieve an 8-10% GDP growth rate by 2031/2032. ⁶

However, a number of issues are not sufficiently covered. According to N. R. Krishnan, a senior official of the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, the document lacks short - and medium-term strategies and roadmaps for each specific sector of the fuel ^and energy complex7.

In 2000, when the Ministry of Oil and Natural Gas of India issued a forecast that by 2025 the total demand for oil and gas products in the country will grow 4 times compared to the current level, to 370 million tons per year, dependence on oil imports will increase by 10% and will amount to more than 80%, gas - 91%⁸, the "India Hydrocarbon Vision 2025" was approved for the development of the oil and gas sector of India until 2025.

Given that any fluctuations in energy prices on world markets put an additional burden on the budget, the development of measures to gradually reduce the level of dependence on imports has become a necessary step for the Government of the country. The key policy vectors in this direction are: ensuring energy security by reaching the level of self-sufficiency by increasing domestic production and investment in fixed assets abroad; developing the oil and gas sector; creating additional infrastructure; and implementing a long-term monetary policy to increase the country's investment attractiveness.

In order to liberalize the oil and gas sector, in 2002 the Government of India announced the complete abolition of the administrative pricing mechanism for the sector's products. This gave an impetus to the development of private companies and enterprises. And in 2006, a decree on the establishment of a special council on oil and Natural Gas came into force, designed to monitor the activities of companies in the oil and gas sector to ensure its transparency and at the same time protect the interests of consumers.

The National Action Plan on Climate Change, prepared by the Council for Combating Climate Change under the leadership of the Prime Minister and approved in 2008, is another important component of India's state energy policy. The plan is designed to implement "the persistence of environmental integrity and resource reserve on the path of India's economic development" ⁹.

The document provides for the implementation of 8 long-term programs: development of solar energy; improvement of energy efficiency; environmental protection; creation of an effective water management system; preservation of the Himalayan ecosystem; programs for the development of sustainable land use.

From the point of view of energy security, the National Program for the Development of Solar Energy is of the greatest interest. Its goal is to increase the share of solar energy in the country's energy balance along with nuclear, hydro and biofuels. According to the Ministry of Energy of India, the total capacity of solar generators installed in the country in 2015. It was 4.1 GW. Most of them are located in only four states - Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

The energy efficiency improvement program involves the creation of market mechanisms that, through the State Bureau of Energy Efficiency, as well as specialized agencies in various states, help reduce prices for technologically new equipment, and ensure cost-effectiveness of energy-intensive industries when they are converted to energy-saving technologies.¹⁰

From the point of view of energy security planning, The India Energy Security Scenarios 2047 (2047 / IESS, 2047), launched in 2014, is of particular interest. This forecasting tool was developed by NITI together with national and foreign independent experts and research institutes. Based on the given forecast indicators of resource supply and demand, it builds energy scenarios for India for the period up to 2047 in electronic format. According to the director of NITI S. According to Khullara, these scenarios can be used not only by analysts and researchers, but also by employees of ministries to calculate their forecast estimates. The results of using this tool in the future are planned to be taken into account when developing a new national energy policy ¹¹.

In general, the ability of India, like any other country, to implement an effective energy security policy directly depends on the existing infrastructure base, as well as its own resources, including natural, technological, financial and human resources.

Summarizing all the considered strategic programs of economic development, where energy issues occupy a priority position, it can be concluded that India, as an importing country, defines the following main directions of its policy: uninterrupted supply of electricity to the population; attracting foreign investment through further liberalization of the sector and the domestic market; development of alternative energy sources; creation and maintenance of energy markets in the increasing national strategic oil reserves; diversifying foreign energy suppliers, including through regional integration measures; strengthening ties with traditional suppliers through joint ventures and projects, and in the long term - reaching the level of self-sufficiency in key types of resources.

FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OF INDIA TODAY

India's fuel and energy sector is developing rapidly thanks to the government's efforts to modernize the economy in order to achieve the planned GDP growth rates. However, further economic development puts the country in front of the need to solve new related tasks. Thus, increasing economic growth, population growth, and industrialization are inextricably linked to the ever-increasing demand for additional energy resources (see graph).

Chart. India's GDP and energy consumption growth rate (%).

Compiled by the author on the basis of data from the Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2015 and the IMF Statistical Database.

Since the beginning of the country's economic turn towards greater liberalization in the 1990s, the energy consumption rate has been growing at a rate that exceeds the values of many developed countries, and the energy consumption rate has been growing at a higher rate than in many developed countries.

as well as other countries participating in the BRI COP. In 2014, growth reached ⁷%, which is the highest in the last five years12.

At the same time, with a population of 18% of the world's total, per capita energy consumption is still only one-third of the world's and below the average of, for example, the African continent.¹³

It is estimated that by 2035, India's share in this indicator will be 8.7% of the world level. It will take the 2nd place after China - 25%, ahead of Russia-4% and Brazil-2%¹⁴. Therefore, for an objective understanding of the current state of the Indian fuel and energy complex and its development prospects, it is important to understand the growth rate of domestic energy demand and the state's policy on what types of resources will be used to meet it.

The transition to a new economic policy also affected the structure of the country's energy balance, in particular, it led to a decrease in the share of biofuels and an increase in demand for non-renewable energy sources. This was primarily caused by a sharp jump in the economic growth rate from 4% to 6%, the development of industrial production, and the urbanization of the population. Biofuels and wood continue to be widely used to this day, mainly in rural areas of the country for heating and other domestic purposes.

Two-thirds of the country's energy consumption is accounted for by fossil fuels and, above all, coal - 44%¹⁵. As of 2014, India's proven coal reserves totaled 60.6 billion tons, or 6.8% of the global level.¹⁶ The coal industry is the most nationalized and inefficient in the country. The state-owned company Coal India Limited is the largest coal producer not only in India, but also in the world. It accounts for 82% of national production and 86% of supplies for coal-fired power plants. ¹⁷ Singareni Collieries Company Limited ranks 2nd (10% of total domestic production), delivering supplies to the southern states.

The level of coal production does not fully meet the growing needs of industry and the population, primarily in the electric power industry, which accounts for about 69% of total consumption. The gap between supply and demand continues to widen and is covered by imports from countries such as Indonesia, South Africa (thermal coal) and Australia (coking coal).

In 2014 India ranked 4th in the world after the United States, China and Japan in terms of oil and petroleum products consumption: its share was 4.3% of the world level ¹⁸, or 3.9 million barrels per day. The volume of its production is only 0.89 million barrels per day.

Rising oil demand and low oil production explain the country's continued heavy dependence on imports, which poses a serious threat to its energy security. The main region that supplies the country is the Middle East (Saudi Arabia), where India has almost no opportunity to invest.

Today, India is also heavily dependent on imported natural gas, which is used primarily for electricity generation, fertilizer production, and as a substitute for coal by households. Until 2004, the country fully met its needs at the expense of its own production. Due to the lack of necessary infrastructure financing and, as a result, the inability to meet the growing demand, India was forced to start importing LNG from Qatar. In 2014, natural gas consumption amounted to 45.6 million tons of oil equivalent. ¹⁹

According to the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, in 2014 the total volume of electricity production in the country amounted to 1,179 thousand GWh, of which 853 thousand came from thermal power plants, 134 thousand from hydroelectric power plants and 34 thousand GWH from nuclear power plants.²⁰

As noted above, today about a quarter of India's population continues to experience electricity shortages. In 2005, the Rajiv Ghandi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY) rural Electrification program was launched to provide access to electricity to all households at reasonable rates. In 2015, its implementation was continued under the new plan - Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana (DDUGJY), and the key control and executive function was transferred to the leading state investment company-Rural Electrification Corporation Limited²¹.

India also has 6 nuclear power plants, including the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in Tamilnadu, which was started in 1998 with the participation of the Russian side. Since 2013, the first power unit - the most powerful in the country-has been operating at the plant. In 2014, Russia and India signed an agreement to supply equipment and start construction of the third and fourth power units of NPP ²².

Biomass continues to be used for energy production in India, mainly by processing sugar cane, or bagasse, for thermal generators.

BRICS COOPERATION

The Indian leadership positively assesses the country's participation in BRICS. Special attention is paid to the economic component of interaction. According to former Prime Minister of the country M. Singh, it is important to deal with issues of cooperation in the energy, scientific and technical spheres within this format.-

non-technical, agricultural, pharmaceutical and other similar fields ²³.

The issue of establishing a mechanism for multilateral cooperation in the field of energy and ensuring energy security is relevant. The leaders of the two countries are already taking steps in this direction. This is evidenced by the initiative to create the BRICS Energy Association, which is designed to coordinate activities in this area, including information exchange, improving the regulatory framework and harmonizing the countries ' energy strategies.

The BRICS New Development Bank (NDRB), which aims to accumulate funds for projects that are significant to several of the group's members, has already approved four renewable energy projects in China, Brazil, South Africa and India for $811 million. UXO plans to provide a multi-tranche loan of $250 million to one of India's oldest state - owned banks, Canara Bank, for further financing of green energy projects. According to preliminary estimates, this will generate 500 MW of energy and prevent 800 thousand tons of waste. t of hydrocarbon emissions into the atmosphere ²⁴.

The intensification of energy cooperation between the group's members opens up new opportunities for India to achieve its energy security goals. This applies to attracting foreign investment in the fuel and energy sector and participating in infrastructure projects, as well as diversifying energy suppliers.

For Russia, an exporter of hydrocarbons, India is of interest as a potential market for oil and natural gas sales, as well as a source of investment in the industry. Thus, one of the major projects with the participation of the Indian company ONGC Videsh Ltd. (20% stake) is Sakhalin-1, implemented on the basis of a production sharing agreement.

At the same time, the prospect of forming a full - fledged energy union and developing a common mechanism for price regulation within the BRICS is still unlikely, due to differences in the approaches and priorities of countries in relation to national energy tasks.

It is more relevant to develop a common position and line of conduct on energy issues in an international format, which is important in the event of instability on world markets, as well as to take measures to ensure the energy security of each of the participants by harmonizing their energy strategies, implementing joint infrastructure projects, and exchanging information and technology.

¹ IMF Statistical Database.

² BP Statistical Review 2016.

³ For more information, see: Sadovnikova Ya. O. India: a new organization of strategic planning? // Asia and Africa today. 2016, N 4. (Sadovnikova Ya.O. 2016. Indiya: novaya organizatsiya strategicheskogo planirovaniya? // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 4) (in Russian)

⁴ Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-2017): Faster, More Inclusive and Sustainable Growth. Vol. I. Planning Commission, Government of India. Sage Publications India Pvt. Ltd - 2013. New Delhi. P. 5.

⁵ Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2012-2017): Economic Sectors. Vol. II. Planning Commission... P. 134.

^{Montek Singh Ahluwalia} 6. Foreword. Integrated Energy Policy. Report of the Expert Committee. Government of India. Planning Commission. New Delhi, 2006. P. VII.

^{Krishnan N.R.} 7 To power 7-8% GDP growth // The Hindu, Business Line. Mumbai, 9 May 2006 - http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/to-power-78-gdp-growth/articlel733150.ece

^{Chaturvedi B.K.} 8 Domestic Resourcing of Energy, Gulf and Future of Global Energy // India's Energy Security and the Gulf Seminar Paper. JNU. February 2004, New Delhi.

⁹ National Action Plan on Climate Change. Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change. Government of India. New Delhi, 2008, P. 1.

¹⁰ Ibid. P. 3.

^{Khullar S.} 11 Preface by the CEO, NITI AAYOG - http://indiaenergy.gov.in/news_details2.php

¹² Country Insights: India. BP Statistical review of World Energy 2015 - http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/country-and-regional-insights/india-insights.html

¹³ India Energy Outlook. World Energy Outlook Special Report // OECD/IEA - 2015. Paris. P. 20.

¹⁴ Country Insights: India...

¹⁵ India Energy Outlook... P. 23.

¹⁶ BP Statistical Review of World Energy. June 2015, P. 30 - https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf

¹⁷ India's Electricity and Coal Market, P. 48 - http://www.industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief-Economist/Publications/Documents/Coal-in-India.pdf

¹⁸ BP Statistical Review of World Energy... P. 11.

¹⁹ Ibid. P. 30.

²⁰ Energy Statistics 2015 (Twenty Second Issue). Central Statistics Office. National Statistical Organisation. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Government of India. P. 24 - http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload/Energy stats_2015_26mar15.pdf

²¹ Ministry of Power. Government of India - http://powermin.nic.in/Rural-Electrification

²² Kiriyenko: Russia and India signed an agreement on Kudankulam NPP / / RIA Novosti - http://ria.ru/world/20141211/1037650799.html

²³ Departure Statement by the PM M. Singh on his visit to Russia. New Delhi, 15.06.2009 - http://meaindia.nic.in/speech/2009/06/15ss01.htm

²⁴ BRICS moves to establish bank institute, rating agency // The Economic Times - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/brics-moves-to-establish-bank-institute-rating-agency/articleshow/ 51836944.cms

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