Key words: India, Russia, China, SCO

E. S. KOVALENKO

MGIMO (U) student of the Russian Foreign Ministry

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established on June 15, 2001 in Shanghai (China) during a meeting of the heads of six states (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan). Now a new dimension of the SCO is being formed, focused on a broader geopolitical (Eurasian) context.

It is based on a system of observer countries, including India since 2005, which has consistently expressed its readiness to upgrade its status to a full member of the SCO.

Consider the arguments for why India could join the SCO and the circumstances surrounding it.

Before the creation of the SCO, all countries-its current members with the exception of Uzbekistan-were members of the Shanghai Five, a political association based on the " Agreement on Confidence-building in the military field in the Border Area "(Shanghai, 1996) and the "Agreement on Mutual Reduction of Armed Forces in the Border Area" (Moscow, 1997).)¹.

The goals of the organization were defined as strengthening mutual trust, friendship and good-neighborliness among the participating States; encouraging effective cooperation between them in political, trade, economic, scientific, technical and other fields; joint efforts to maintain and ensure peace, security and stability in the region, and building a new democratic, just and rational political and economic international order. order ².

REGIONAL ORGANIZATION OF GLOBAL SIGNIFICANCE

Addressing mainly cross-border issues, the Shanghai Five gradually transformed into a regional organization with a large development potential and a wide range of tasks to be solved. Its leaders are Russia and China, taking into account at least the share of funds they contribute to the organization's budget (23.5% each), according to the Agreement on the Procedure for Forming and Executing the SCO Budget. For comparison, the share of Kazakhstan is 20%, Uzbekistan-15%, Kyrgyzstan-12%, Tajikistan-6%³.

The participation of the Russian Federation and the PRC in the SCO makes it possible to attract the military and political resources of these countries to repel the threats of the "three evils" (in Chinese terminology)-separatism, religious extremism and terrorism.⁴

The SCO Observer Countries Institute includes Mongolia (observer since 2004), India, Iran, Pakistan (since 2005), and Afghanistan (since 2012). In addition, there is an institute of dialogue partner countries: Belarus, Sri Lanka (they received the status of a dialogue partner in the course of summit in Yekaterinburg in 2009), as well as Turkey (dialogue partner since 2012). It is noteworthy that the Turkish leader RT. Erdogan, following a meeting of the Russian-Turkish High-level Cooperation Council on November 22, 2013, also called for Ankara's accession to the SCO ⁵.

There are different assessments of the SCO's activities. According to official documents, the SCO deals with a wide range of issues - security, economy, culture, and education. The SCO member states regularly conduct joint military anti-terrorist exercises. Some experts speak of this organization as a possible counterweight to NATO in the East.

However, the SCO is not a military bloc and is unlikely to ever become one. At the same time, the complication of the military-political situation in the region, in particular, in Afghanistan, causes the need to form a system of regional security and protect the interests of the organization.⁶

The SCO member states account for 60% of the territory of Eurasia, where about 25% of the world's population lives (and if you add observer states-about half of the world's population)⁷. Currently, the SCO is a major regional organization, whose actions are evaluated in terms of its impact on global and regional processes. ⁸

Various countries are seeking to join the SCO in one capacity or another. Pakistan applied for membership in the organization in 2006, and Iran applied for membership in the SCO in 2007 and 2008. India first formally applied for full membership in the SCO in May 2011. Joining the organization as an observer confirms its readiness to "play across the board" and pursue a multi-vector policy on all continents.⁹

WHY INDIA NEEDS THE SCO

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, India's foreign policy priorities in the post-Soviet space, along with Russia and Ukraine, became the states of Central Asia (CA) - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The geostrategically important area they occupy, from the borders of China to Iran and the Caspian Sea, connects the Hindustan Peninsula with Eurasia. The region is rich in human, mineral and raw material resources, such as uranium (50% of the former USSR's reserves), gas (4th place in the world), oil, iron and copper ores, coal, rare metals, cotton, etc.-

Thus, for India, Central Asia is important in many ways from the point of view of resources.

Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Delhi became particularly concerned about the possibility of radical Islamists coming to power in the region and forming a regional bloc with an anti-Indian position consisting of Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Afghanistan.¹¹

As Nandan Unnikrishnan, Vice President of the Center for International Affairs of the Observer Foundation (India), noted ¹², India is a new player in Central Asia. However, the country does not have access to this region: Pakistan blocks the transit of Indian goods to Afghanistan and further to the Central Asian countries. If there is no access to the resources of Central Asia by land, the Indian side is considering the possibility of a sea route through the Iranian port of Chahbehar, then to Afghanistan, and then to Central Asia.¹³

India's trade level with the region is only $500 million in 2013. For comparison, the region's trade turnover with China and Russia is $29 billion and $26 billion, respectively. According to N. Unnikrishnan, ¹⁴ if India does not have close ties with the region, it is unlikely that New Delhi will be able to play a big role in Central Asia. He also emphasizes that India is becoming a major economic power, influencing the situation not only in neighboring countries, but also around the world. Its ambitions will push it to develop relations with ^CA15.

In this context, the Indian side announced the "Connect with Central Asia" policy. It was first presented by the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of India, E. Ahamed, during the first meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue, held on June 12-13, 2013 in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. This program is aimed at creating universities, hospitals, IT centers, joint ventures, improving air connectivity to boost trade and tourism, as well as joint research and strategic partnerships in defense and security affairs.¹⁶

In addition, according to the authors of the monograph "China and India in Central Asia. A new "Big Game"?"^For example, several years ago, India had big plans for an economic presence in Central Asia, and memoranda on cooperation in the energy sector were signed with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.

However, apart from cooperation with Turkmenistan on gas supplies and investment in some infrastructure projects in Tajikistan, India has not implemented previously announced cooperation projects with other countries18.

India's accession to the SCO would be a springboard for strengthening cooperation with Central Asian countries, which are of great geopolitical importance in terms of ensuring New Delhi's national interests. In addition, it would limit to some extent China's economic presence in the region, which over time may well lead to a further strengthening of its political influence. It is noteworthy that the volume of trade between China and the SCO member states increased more than 10-fold from 2001 to 2012, from $12.1 billion. up to $123.7 billion ¹⁹. And, as expected, it will only grow in the future.

It is also interesting that from the point of view of cultural interaction, India is an attractive and close partner for the population of Central Asian countries. So, for example, among the citizens of Central Asian countries, the films of the Indian "Bollywood" are very popular - it, in comparison with the products of the American "Hollywood", offers more "chaste" films.

The SCO can also become an additional arena for establishing bilateral cooperation between India and China, which became India's first trade partner in fy2013 - 2014 (trade turnover amounted to about $65.9 billion). Such a high level of trade, despite a number of unresolved problems in India-China relations, will force the parties to look for opportunities and new platforms for interaction. However, India-China cooperation is constrained ^by Beijing's "unique friendship"with its traditional rival New Delhi, Islamabad, which, as mentioned above, also aspires to be a full member of the SCO.

India and Pakistan, which are still developing their relations with the SCO "in parallel", can only be admitted to this organization at the same time in order to avoid disrupting the existing balance of power in the region (Beijing adheres to this point of view). In addition, the simultaneous accession could contribute to the normalization of relations between New Delhi and Islamabad.

However, there is a caveat: as noted in the Chinese newspaper "People's Daily", if India and Pakistan, by joining the SCO, can solve their problems, then American dominance in the region will weaken, and if not, it will not be possible to avoid weakening the influence of the SCO ²¹.

WHY THE SCO NEEDS INDIA

There are still a number of arguments in favor of why India could be admitted to the SCO. First, the SCO's geopolitical configuration lacks a strong southern direction. An expansion of the SCO to the south would help" peacefully " encircle Afghanistan without interfering in its military and political internal affairs, and help it economically while supporting strategic stability and development in Eurasia. ²²

Taking into account the interests and levers of influence that countries such as Russia and Iran have in Afghanistan, the Indian Foreign Ministry conducts dialogues with them on a regular basis. So, for example, during the visit of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of India, Narendra Modi. Rao arrived in Moscow in August 2010. The parties agreed to coordinate their policy on Afghanistan more closely. ²³ Moscow and New Delhi agree that Afghanistan's integration into modern world economic relations will contribute to the stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan. A stable situation in Afghanistan would also facilitate the establishment of safe transport routes connecting India with Russia and Central Asia.

According to Global Humanitarian Assistance ²⁴, India has been one of the top five providers of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan over the past decade. The Indian side has invested over $2 billion in the country, and social contacts have expanded. New Delhi grants 1,500 scholarships to Afghans every year

* The fiscal year in India is from April 1 to March 31.

for studying in india ²⁵. India is also interested in joint actions with the SCO countries to reduce the drug threat from Afghanistan (after the occupation of Afghanistan by the United States and its allies, heroin production in this country increased tenfold).

As for Russia's position, Moscow officially supports India's bid to join the SCO. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow expects India and Pakistan to join the SCO as soon as possible, and work on considering their applications is already underway. ²⁶ In addition, during the organization's summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) in September 2014, documents on the procedure for granting the status of a SCO member state were adopted.²⁷ India and Pakistan can become full members of the organization as early as at the next SCO summit, which is scheduled to be held in Ufa in 2015.

Thus, Moscow, taking into account Beijing's approaches, proposes simultaneous entry of India and Pakistan into the SCO.

Among other differences between strategic partners that are evident during the negotiations, we note that Russia focuses on military-political cooperation within the SCO, and the Indian leadership constantly makes it clear that economic issues are a priority for India.

In the thirteen years since the SCO was founded, China has become its "leading player". So, at the SCO summit in 2009, Russia promoted the concept of abandoning the US currency and strengthening the role of national currencies in settlements between the organization's participants. Beijing supported the idea, but at the same time announced the provision of loans in the amount of $10 billion. for the SCO member states.

Russia can count on strengthening its position by admitting India to the organization, since it will be beneficial for Moscow if there are not two, but three "major players"in the SCO.

Russian-Indian regional cooperation is limited, as there is no regional organization yet in which both Russia and India are represented as full participants. In the future, the SCO could become such an organization. But while Russia welcomes the Indian bid and will try to support it, Moscow cannot do without China's consent when admitting New Delhi to the SCO.

Undoubtedly, India's accession to the SCO will have a positive impact on the dialogue platforms of the RIC and BRICS.

¹ What is the SCO? // Central Internet Portal of the SCO -http://infoshos.ru/ru/?id=51

² Declaration on the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization / / Website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs - http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/ns-rasia.nsf/ ZA0108443C964002432569E7004199C0/432569d80021985f43256a70006c acf4!Open Document

³ Agreement on the procedure for forming and Executing the Budget of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (29.05.2003) / / Website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs http://www.mid.rU/BDOMP/spm_md.nsf/0/9B8797DЕВ563Е 3944257BE8001D901E

^{4. Luzyanin S. G., Morozov Yu. V.} 4 SCO: possible ways of development / / Asia and Africa today. 2010, N 4, pp. 41-45. (Luzyanin S. G., Morozov Y. V. 2010. SHOS: vozmozhnye puti razvitiya // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 4) (in Russian)

⁵ Press conference following the meeting of the High-level Cooperation Council between Russia and Turkey (22.11.2013) / / Website of the President of Russia - http://kremlin.ru/transcripts/19677

^{Luzyanin S. G., Morozov Yu. V.} 6 Decree. op.

^{Sameer Jafri.} 7 Rise of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (04.07.2011) // Oye! Times - http://www.oyetimes.com/news/asia/ 12310-rise-of-shanghai-cooperation -organisation

^{Nikitina Yu. A.} 8 CSTO and SCO as models of interaction in the sphere of regional security / / Security Index, No. 2 (97). Volume 17. 2011. P. 50. (Nikitina Y. A. 2011. ODKB i SHOS как modeli vzaimodeistviya v sfere regionalnoi bezopasnosti // Index bezopasnosti, N 2 (97) (in Russian)

^{Kuzykh B. N., Shaumyan T. L.} 9 India - Russia: Partnership Strategy in the XXI century, Moscow, Institute of Economic Strategies, 2009, p. 992 (Kuzyk B. N., Shaumyan T. L. 2009. Indiya - Rossiya: strategiya partnerstva v XXI veke) (in Russian)

¹⁰ On some aspects of India's approach to developing relations with the Central Asian republics of the former USSR // WUA OF the Russian Federation. Fund 90, India, inventory No. 55, case No. 11, folder No. 128, l. 97.

^{Lunev S. I.} 11 Challenges to the Security of the Southern Borders of Russia, Moscow, Moscow Public Scientific Foundation, 1999, pp. 158-160 (Lunev S. I. 1999. Vyzovy bezopasnosti yuzhnykh granits Rossii. M.) (in Russian)

¹² See: Security Challenges in Central Asia, Moscow, IMEMO RAS, 2013, p. 28. (2013. Vyzovy bezopasnosti v Tsentralnoiy Azii) (in Russian)

^{Carras Mary.} 13 India's Dilemma: Accessing Central Asia's Wealth // FPIF - http://fpif.org/indias-dilemma-accessing-central-asias-wealth/

¹⁴ See: Security Challenges in Central Asia...

¹⁵ Ibid.

^{Jyoti Prasad Das.} 16 India's "Connect Central Asia" Policy // Foreign Policy Journal - http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2012/ 10/29/indias-connect-central-asia-policy/

¹⁷ Cm: Laruelle M. China and India in Central Asia: A New "Great Game"? // Marlene Laruelle, Sebastien, Peyrouse, Huchet Jean-Francois, Balci Bayram. Palgrave Macmillan. 2010.

¹⁸ The role of India and China in Central Asia (12.03.2012) / / Voice of America - http://www.golos-ameriki.ru/content/china-central-asia-2012 - 03 - 12 - 142363405/664526.html. See more details: The Chinese Question in Central Asia: Domestic Order, Social Change, and the Chinese Factor / Marlene Laruelle, Sebastien Peyrouse. Hurst & Co. 2011.

¹⁹ The SCO member States should strengthen and expand pragmatic trade and economic cooperation in the region / / China International Radio - http://russian.cri.cn/841/2013/11/29/ ls492675.htm

²⁰ Joint Statement "On Deepening Strategic and Economic Cooperation between the People's Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan "(in Chinese) (19.02.2014) / / Ministry of the Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China-http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_chn/ziliao_611306/1179_611310/tl 130 162. shtml

²¹ If India and Pakistan join the SCO, China-Russia cooperation will reach a new stage (30.03.2011) / / People's Daily - http://russian.people.com.cn/95181/7424968.html

^{Luzyanin S. G.} 22 SCO: Security Problems and Prospects for Cooperation in Eurasia. Problemy Dalnego Vostoka [Problems of the Far East]. 2011, N 1. P. 13. (Luzyanin S. G. 2011. SHOS: problemy bezopasnosti i perspektivy sotrudnichestva v Evrazii // Problemy Dalnego Vostoka, N 1) (in Russian)

^{Bibhu Prasad Routray.} 23 National Security decision-making in India. Singapore, S Rajaratnam School of International Studies. 2013, p. 26 -http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/ ?lng-en&id-163172

^{Poole Lydia.} 24 Afghanistan // GHA - http://www.globalhumanit-arianassistance.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/gha-Afghanistan- 2011-major-resource-flows.pdf

^{Syed Nazakat.} 25 With US leaving, is Afghanistan turning to India? (02.06.2014) // CSMonitor - With US leaving, is Afghanistan turning to India? - http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2014/ 0602/With-US-leaving-is-Afghanistan-turning-to-India

²⁶ Lavrov: Russia hopes India and Pakistan will join the SCO as soon as possible / / Vzglyad Newspaper - http://vz.ru/news/2013/ 10/2/653122.html

²⁷ Documents adopted following the meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (12.09.2014) / / Website of the President of Russia - http://news.kremlin.ru/ ref_notes/4749

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