Libmonster ID: IN-1250
Author(s) of the publication: A. V. AKIMOV

A. V. AKIMOV

Doctor of Economics

Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Key words: India, BRICS, Amartya Sen, Human Development Index, "Population pressure on the earth"

The global financial and economic crisis has proved to be a serious challenge for all the countries of the world, but it has had a special impact on the BRICS countries. China and India - the largest economies in the group of developing and transition countries - have experienced the crisis more easily than most of the world's countries. This has become a serious bid for global leadership. Moreover, in 2010, China was ranked as the second largest economy in the world after the United States.

In 2003, experts at the investment firm Goldman & Sachs coined the acronym BRIC (which sounds in English the same as the word "brick") to refer to a group of countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China-whose growth, in their opinion, will largely ensure the future growth of the world economy and society. stock markets, in particular. This was done primarily to attract potential investors to buy the securities of these countries. It was pointed out that the rapid growth of the economies of the four countries makes it profitable to invest in these countries. If earlier, traditionally, the greatest demand was for securities issued by firms and governments of developed countries in Europe, North America and Japan, now financiers were invited to actively explore new markets of activity.

The microeconomic idea, which is aimed at making a profit from the shares of fast-growing enterprises in the BRIC countries, turned out to be true from the point of view of macroeconomics, i.e. at the level of national economies. It took root, and the BRIC began to be considered by politicians and economists as a group of large states characterized by rapid and sustainable development. Thus, these countries have emerged from the group of developing and transition economies into the vanguard, which is successfully catching up with developed countries in terms of their economic power.

Moreover, the BRIC countries began to transform into a group with common economic and even political interests. For example, at the second summit, held in Brazil in April 2010, the final statement included sections on energy, climate change and the fight against terrorism. In addition to the consequences of the global financial and economic crisis, they discussed the possibilities of coordinating efforts in the field of security and organized crime.

As noted above, two BRIC members - China and India - have been more easily affected by the global financial and economic crisis than many other countries in the world. Russia was less fortunate. Its economy experienced a severe downturn during the crisis (see Table). 1), and the recovery from the crisis was not accompanied by a radical increase in efficiency. Since the size of the Brazilian economy is smaller than that of China and India, observers ' attention is focused primarily on the China-India pair. Will these countries become the leaders of global economic growth, pulling the entire world economy out of the depression, or will India fall behind and find it difficult to act as a global locomotive?

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) experts, China's economy has been developing at a faster pace than India's in recent years, but the difference in rates is small (see Table 1). India and China showed strong economic growth during the crisis, when both the world economy as a whole and developed countries experienced a decline in production. In 2010, both countries developed at a rate that is 3 times higher than that of developed countries. Since 2011, these countries have entered a period of economic stagnation and slow growth, and the gap has widened 4-5 times, and with China-almost 6 times. At the same time, China's GDP growth rate has clearly left the double-digit zone, but this fact is not negative, since the PRC needs to improve its economy.


* After the Republic of South Africa (RSA) joined the BRIC in 2011, the group became known as BRICS. Due to the short-term presence of South Africa in its composition, this country is placed out of brackets in this article.

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Table 1

BRIC countries ' GDP growth rate

Year

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 (forecast)

The world at large

-0,6

5,0

3,9

3,2

3,5

Developed countries

-3,4

3,0

1,6

1,3

1,4

Developing countries and countries with economies in transition

2,6

7,1

6,3

5,1

5,5

Brazil

-0,6

7,5

2,7

1,0

3,5

Russia

-7,9

3,7

4,3

3,4

3,7

India

5,7

9,7

7,9

4,5

5,9

China

9,2

10,3

9,3

7,8

8,2



Source: IMF. World Economic Outlook Update. January 25, 2011; Modest Growth Pickup in 2013, Projects IMF - http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ survey/so/2013/new012313a.htm

restructuring its economic model. For India, the slowdown in GDP growth is more worrisome.

Russia shows faster growth than the group of developed countries, but it is smaller not only in comparison with China and India, but also with the group of developing countries and countries with economies in transition. Brazil also slowed down significantly.

We can say that after the acute phase of the crisis, the BRIC was divided into two parts. The first is China and India, which have managed to maintain high GDP growth rates, and the second is Brazil and Russia, which, having regained economic growth after the recession in 2009, are showing very moderate GDP growth rates. However, the entire group is still developing faster than developed countries.

WHAT A NOBEL LAUREATE DOESN'T LIKE ABOUT INDIA

In general, the economic and political establishment in India is satisfied with the macroeconomic situation and believes that in the medium term, India may well develop with an average GDP growth rate of about 10%, although there is an understanding that too rapid growth is fraught with imbalance.

The speech of Amartya Sen, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, an Indian by birth working in the United States, sounded a certain dissonance to the mood of the Indian elite. Speaking to students and entrepreneurs in Delhi, he questioned the need to compete with China in terms of GDP growth. In his opinion, it is much more important to use economic activity for the benefit of the main part of the population.1

An indicator of the dynamics in this area is, in particular, the Human Development Index (HDI). This index is calculated as a combination of three aspects of development:

- health of the population, as measured by the average life expectancy of a newborn;

- education, the indicator of which is the duration of adult education;

- material living conditions, measured by per capita GDP.

Such indexes have been calculated for a long time in most countries of the world. Table 2 shows the indices for the BRIC countries. Rating - a place in the list of countries in the world: the higher, the better the country's comparative position. The index must not exceed 1.0.

We have already mentioned the split of the BRIC countries into two groups in terms of GDP growth rates. The HDI also distinguishes two groups. These are Russia and Brazil with relatively high HDI levels, and India and China with low HDI levels.

In general, the entire BRIC group is not among the leaders in the world, where countries such as Norway, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States have maximum scores above 0.900. If Russia and Brazil belong to the category of countries with a high level of the index, then China and India belong to the group of medium-level countries. India is an outsider in the BRIC group in terms of HDI, despite impressive achievements in the pace of economic growth.

Table 2

Human Development Index in the BRIC countries in 2011

Country's HDI rating

A country

HDI

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Average duration of training (years)

GDP per capita, PPP ( $ , 2008)

Non-income HDI value

66

Russia

0,755

68,8

9,8

14561

0,777

84

Brazil

0,718

73,5

7,2

10162

0,748

101

China

0,687

73,5

7,5

7476

0,725

134

India

0,547

65,4

4,4

3468

0,568



Составлено по: Human Development Report 2011 - Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All - http://hdr.undp.org/en/

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Table 3

Number and proportion of undernourished people in China, India and Brazil

Countries

Number of undernourished people in 2007-2009, mln.

Number of undernourished people in 2010-2012, mln.

Proportion of undernourished people in the population in 2007-2009, %

Proportion of undernourished people in 2010-2012, %

Brazil

15

13

7,8

6,9

China

158

158

11,6

11,5

India

227

217

19,0

17,5



Compiled by: The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012. FAO. Rome, 2010, p. 48 - 49.

growth and development of information technology and other high-tech industries.

The contrast is great in all areas: life expectancy, the number of years of study, and the level of GDP. If we discard the economic component of the index (see the last column of the table). 2), then Russia, Brazil and China form a very close group, i.e. education and health of the population in them differ little. At the same time, India still lags far behind, and the gap between it and China is even widening. That is, the gap is large not only in the economic sphere, but also in the sphere of health and education of the population.

Another aspect that A. Sen drew attention to is the food situation in India. Lack of nutrition is a constant problem in the country, and without its solution, progress is very limited. A large population, especially in rural areas, and limited economic resources that are insufficient to implement large-scale programs to modernize the economy in general and agriculture in particular, create conditions for a large-scale environmental crisis.

"POPULATION PRESSURE ON THE EARTH"

For many decades, agricultural overpopulation has been growing in India, which leads to the destruction of the natural environment in the village. According to V. G. Rastiannikov, a researcher of fundamental problems of the agricultural sector in India and a number of other major countries of the world, despite the dizzying success of economic growth in recent decades, modern India is experiencing an acute crisis called "pressure of population on land". This crisis is permanent. The root cause of this crisis is excessively intensive population growth that does not correspond to the mass of available natural resources. 2

The state of modern agriculture in India is characterized by the fact that the production of food grains per capita at the beginning of the XXI century is lower than at the end of the XIX century. 3

According to the orientalist A.M. Goryacheva, " the country is already burdened with such a large number of overweight, poor, illiterate and ill population that it is impossible to include it in the modern economic process (inclusive growth). The country's leadership is aware that even an economic growth rate of 8-10% per year cannot solve the problem dramatically. " 4

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), three BRIC countries have a problem of malnutrition. In all three countries, the number of people in need and their share in the population are falling, and the economic crisis in this area of society is not noticeable, but in India, both the number of people receiving insufficient nutrition and the share of these people in the population are still high (see Table 3).

INDICATORS OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

An important component of catch-up development is the construction of an industrial society and its corresponding physical infrastructure in the form of modern buildings, communication routes, etc. This requires structural materials, the main of which are steel and rolled products. In addition, a developed industrial society requires the development of mechanical engineering, which is largely metalworking. Leadership in steel production moves from country to country as the initial stages of industrialization pass, but a modern industrial society cannot be created without the production of large quantities of steel structures, steel sheets, rolled products, pipes, etc.

Table 4 shows the level of steel production in the BRIC countries. China stands out not only in the BRIC, but also around the world. Its closest competitor, Japan, produced just over 100 million tons of steel in 2012; China produces more steel than Western Europe, North America, and Japan combined. Thus, China stands out sharply as an industrial power. At the same time, the level of steel production in India has already exceeded that in Russia. Obviously (see Table). 4) that all BRIC countries have successfully overcome the acute phase of the crisis in the iron and steel industry, and are increasing steel production at a rapid pace. It should be noted that Brazil is an outsider in terms of the scale of development of ferrous metallurgy in the BRIC group.

Table 5 shows the level of consumption of metalworking equipment in the BRIC countries. This indicator characterizes the degree and speed of development of-

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Table 4

BRIC steel production (million tons)

Countries

2009

2012

China

567,8

708,8

India

56,6

76,7

Russia

59,9

70,6

Brazil

26,5

34,7



Source: Crude Steel Statistics. Total 2010 - http://www.worldsteel.org/?action=stats&type=steel&period=latest&month=13&year=2010; 2012 год рассчитан no: Crude steel production. December 2012 - http://www.worldsteel.org

This is the largest part of the mass segment of mechanical engineering (without electronics), which provides the production of most of the things that surround a modern person at work and in everyday life. It is obvious that China is several times ahead of other BRIC countries in terms of consumption. India lags almost 20 times behind China in terms of consumption, but both it and Brazil are ahead of Russia. It should be noted that India has outperformed Brazil since the end of the acute phase of the global economic crisis. As for Russia, despite the growing consumption of metalworking equipment, it lags far behind all the BRIC Group members.

Another problem in India is the backward physical infrastructure. The" bottleneck " in India's infrastructure is highways. India ranks 2nd in the world in terms of road network length, but this network needs to be radically modernized. Highways provide 85% of passenger and 61% of freight traffic in the country. At the same time, about a third of roads have one lane in each direction, a little more than half have two lanes, and only about 12% have 3 and 4 lanes. As a result, traffic on the roads, many of which are also occupied by bicycles and horse-drawn carts, is slow. A 10-ton truck covers the 1,400 km distance between Mumbai and Delhi in 3 to 4 days, i.e. at an average speed of less than 50 km / h. Every year, about 100 thousand people die on the roads (four times more than in Russia), which makes them one of the most dangerous in the world.

Railways are also a "bottleneck" in the country's transport system. India's railway network was formed for a century and a half, and now it is not only the most extensive, but also the busiest in the world. Railways transport about a third of all cargo, but only 15% of passengers, although this is almost 7 billion rubles. people (approximately equal to the world's population) per year. 20 years ago, railways accounted for about 70% of passenger traffic, but now they simply cannot cope with the growth of traffic due to outdated infrastructure. They also need to be upgraded to ensure the stability and growth of coal transportation volumes - the main cargo transported by them in India. Road transport cannot take on a large volume of such cheap cargo as coal.

India, which is a large country, is developing unevenly. Some states benefit most from rapid economic growth, but some do not fit into modernization projects. The capital district of Delhi and the states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu in the south of the country are most successfully developing. This is where investment comes in, where production develops, and where export flows are directed. Economic growth provides higher incomes for the labor force. At the same time, the major states of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh are less affected by modernization and growth. The average per capita income in successfully developing states is 4 to 5 times higher than in less prosperous ones.

The majority of Indian incomes are generated in the rural economy, much of which is still traditional in nature. Modernization has hardly affected this area of production. Agriculture generates about 20% of GDP, but it employs more than half of the country's workforce.

Economic growth benefits the middle class the most. There are more and more goods and services that are consumed by the middle class, and prices for them grow very moderately, and for some they fall as national production develops, replacing imports. At the same time, prices for food and utilities are rising, which determine the economic situation of the main part of the Indian population, which has very low incomes.

INDIA AND CHINA: RESULTS OF PASSING THROUGH THE CRISIS

If we compare the Chinese and Indian economies, the Chinese economy will be ahead in most indicators. However, based on the results of passing the CHE-

Table 5

Consumption of metalworking equipment in BRIC countries ($ million)

Countries

2010

2011

China

28480

38370

India

1775

2352

Brazil

1861

1990

Russia

1165

1317



Составлено по: The 2012 World Machine-Tool Output & Consumption Survey - http://www.gardnerweb.com/articles/-2012-world-machine-tool-output-and-consumption-surv ey

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In the face of the global financial and economic crisis, India was more efficient than China: it took less effort than China to maintain stable economic growth after the crisis. This is due to the fact that during the crisis, China launched a large-scale program to stimulate its economy. In 2009, the volume of loans that were supposed to encourage investment, primarily in infrastructure, doubled compared to 2008 and amounted to $1.4 trillion, or 30% of the country's GDP.5 The program proved to be a success, as economic growth remained strong even as China's exports fell by 16% in 2009.

Success, however, is accompanied by certain risks. An abundance of money can inflate financial bubbles, especially in the real estate sector. In addition, too many loans can lead to the fact that not all borrowers will be able to service them, and this will negatively affect the quality of the entire banking system.

India,like many other countries, during the crisis, lowered the refinancing rate, introduced tax incentives and increased budget spending. However, their volumes were much lower than those in China. They amounted to $36 billion in 2009/10 FY, or only 3% of GDP, while the comparable part of the Chinese anti-crisis package amounted to about 6% of GDP. India managed to boost economic growth during the crisis without risking the stability of the banking system. Banks have been conservative in their treatment of borrowers and have not accumulated bad loans. There are no signs of inflating financial bubbles in the real estate market.

Since India's economy is less dependent on foreign markets, it has managed to limit itself to less efforts than China to overcome the consequences of the global crisis. Before the crisis in 2008, China's exports accounted for 35% of GDP, and India's for 24%. China needed something to compensate for the drop in exports in order to maintain economic growth. It was much easier for India to solve this problem. On the eve of the crisis, private sector consumption in India was 57% of GDP, while in China it was only 35%.6 That is why in India, during the crisis, it was private consumption that proved to be the most important stabilizer. Overall, the country's economy has maintained its potential for rapid growth, without accumulating new risks associated with financial stimulus during the crisis.

Although China is ahead of India in terms of economic growth and modernization, in recent years, especially during the crisis, its economic model has adopted some features of the Indian one. The fact is that before the crisis, China was focused on the global market and for this reason is vulnerable to a deterioration in the global environment, while India is more focused on the domestic market, which gives the economy greater stability. China has begun to rapidly develop its domestic market, moving closer to the Indian growth model.

Responding to the observation that India is very slow in making economic policy decisions, Prime Minister M. Singh stated that "the race is won by those who move slowly but steadily" ("...slow and steady will win the race").7

We can talk about a certain convergence of the models of economic development of India and China. While China's economic reforms curtailed the hypertrophied influence of the state on economic life, India did not dismantle the elements of centralized economic management that were created in the first decades after independence. Both countries have increased the role of competition mechanisms, extending them to state-owned enterprises, but have retained mechanisms of state influence on vital aspects of economic development.

Another important feature of the economic development of both countries is the development of the production of means of production: machinery, equipment, appliances, etc. In the context of globalization, such a strategy is fraught with certain risks. The fact is that global competition in mechanical engineering has led to the narrow specialization of many firms, their high productivity, the protection of their products by patents, and the formation of know-how that is not passed on to competitors. Therefore, the development of our own production of modern equipment can be expensive with endless lag and low efficiency.

Taking this risk, both China and India are quite successful in solving the problem of placing complex equipment production on their territory. Foreign firms are actively attracted, and their own engineering schools and machine-building companies are being created that can produce modern equipment that is suitable for the local market in terms of price and technical characteristics. Such a strategy ensures technological independence of development and creates mechanisms for self-sustaining growth of technical achievements focused on the domestic market. A striking example of such a technical achievement is the cheapest laptop in the world created in India - its price is $358.

The Western market does not need simplified, cheap models, because they will also buy expensive products with great capabilities. But for the Indian consumer, such a computer is a step into the modern information society, which would be impossible to do with the high price of this equipment. Students from poor backgrounds are mass consumers of cheap computer technology. Having received a higher education with their help, they become qualified manufacturers of various, including the most modern equipment.

A very difficult task for India is the problem of employment of a significant number of urban and rural residents. However, on this particular issue, the world situation is in favor of India. The fact is that as a result of the birth control policy implemented since the late 1970s in the current "workshop of the world"-China, both the aging of the labor force and the growth of wages of employees are simultaneously taking place there, while increasing the level of their social and legal protection. Foreign entrepreneurs who invest in China will have to look for other countries that provide a low level of labor costs. India's prospects in these conditions are obviously favorable.

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Table 6

Production of passenger cars in BRIC countries (thous.)

Countries

2007

2011

China

6381,1

14485,3

India

1713,4

3038,3

Brazil

2391,4

2534,5

Russia

1288,7

1738,2



Source: On the world car market / / BIKI, N 100, September 4, 2010. p. 10; http://oica.net/category/production-statistics/

The International Labour Organization estimates that the number of working-age Indians will grow by 80 million by 2020. There are other estimates as well. Experts at the London School of Economics point out that currently only 1/3 of women in India are looking for paid work outside the home. Even with a moderate increase in this proportion, as the country modernizes, this category of labor force alone can increase its number by 110 million people. Overall, 30% of the world's total labor force growth over the current decade will come from India.9

At the same time, the employment policy of Indian industrial firms is to save live labor. Companies prefer modern equipment and technologies that do not require hiring a large number of workers. According to many Indian entrepreneurs, it is technical re-equipment that increases the competitiveness of manufactured products, especially those going for export. Those who got a job at these firms have a significant increase in salaries. Such trends are observed not only in mechanical engineering, but also in the clothing industry, jewelry and toy production.

Experts emphasize that this kind of policy of entrepreneurs is largely due to the peculiarities of labor legislation, which is replete with regulatory legal acts formed at the level of the central government and states. The general orientation of these acts is such that the dismissal of an employee is very difficult.

According to the World Bank, "catch-up development" within India itself can have a big impact. If the Indian "middle-class" companies reach the level of those advanced firms that already operate in the Indian economy, the country's GDP will grow 5 times 10.

POST-CRISIS DEVELOPMENT

As already noted, India's focus on the domestic market, which dates back to the pre-reform model of economic development, allowed it to survive the acute phase of the global financial and economic crisis relatively painlessly. Apparently, the focus on domestic consumption remains a promising strategy in the post-crisis period*.

Goldman & Sachs, which introduced the concept of BRIC, provides a forecast of sustainable economic growth in this group of countries in the coming years. According to its experts, the group's total GDP will exceed that of the United States11 by 2018. The main engine of economic growth in these countries is the middle class, whose number is steadily increasing. Goldman & Sachs experts refer to this class of individuals whose income ranges from $6 thousand to $30 thousand per year. This group will rapidly increase their consumption.

This growth means the development of two trends. First, there will be a significant increase in the need for those goods that meet primary needs, including food, clothing and housing. Secondly, there will be a growing demand for high-tech goods (cars, household appliances, computers, communications equipment), which will determine the growth of production not only in the BRIC countries, but also in the entire global economy. By 2020, Goldman & Sachs estimates that India's middle class will grow to more than 400 million people, and China's to 1 billion. human.

Rapid economic growth in the world's most populous countries, China and India, will undoubtedly affect the structure of demand and trade flows in the global economy. India and China will increasingly become importers of raw materials for their industries and high-tech industrial products for the consumer market.

The development of the automotive industry has become an important component of economic growth, which is aimed at meeting the needs of the changing domestic market in India. This industry, especially for large countries that claim to develop their own industry, becomes an indicator of the capabilities of national production. In addition, motorization of the population is a sign of growing prosperity.

As can be seen from Table 6, India confidently overtook Russia in the production of cars and trucks even before the crisis, but the gap with China is growing. If we consider the existing fleet of cars, then, as of the end of 2008, the Chinese fleet was 51 million units (3rd place in the world after the United States and Japan), the Russian fleet-38 million (level of Italy and France), the Brazilian fleet - 27.5 million (level of Spain), the Indian fleet - 18.5 million. (level of Poland and South Korea)12. Thus, India has a great potential to saturate the domestic market with cars. The creation of a fleet of transport infrastructure suitable for growth is becoming a necessary element of development, largely following the path of the United States and European countries that have experienced a period of intensive motorization and road construction as a stage of economic development.

The fact that infrastructure is a "bottleneck" in development,


Table 1 shows that in India and China, there was no crisis as a decline in GDP at all. In the world, as the same table shows, the decline was only in 2009. After that, there was growth, so now we can talk about post-crisis development from this point of view. There are difficulties, but there is no decline in GDPauthor's note).

page 7

The authorities and businessmen of India understand it well. According to the country's XI five-year development Plan for 2007-2011, an amount equivalent to $500 billion has been allocated for the construction of infrastructure facilities, including $100 billion for road construction. The Government of India plans to create an infrastructure investment fund with 40% of funds raised from international sources, such as pension funds, insurance funds, and international financial agencies (these are the investment schemes that Goldman & Sachs experts suggested when they came up with the BRIC abbreviation).

Currently, road construction provides employment for 30 million Indians, making it the largest employer after agriculture. 13 Highway modernization is recognized as one of the priorities of economic development in India. Significant amounts of capital were invested for this purpose only after 2000, and in 2008 it was decided to significantly increase funding. The federal Government, the private sector, and regional administrations share roughly equally in spending. Approximately half of the funding goes to the construction and reconstruction of national highways, which should strengthen the backbone of the main roads connecting the country's regions. About 12% of the funding is allocated for the construction of rural roads14.

Large-scale construction works that generate not only employment growth, but also the production of complex construction equipment are carried out in the mining industry, primarily coal, in the construction of railways, sea and air ports, irrigation facilities and infrastructure in cities.

In modern conditions, successful catch-up development is impossible without the development of science and technology. In China, the number of people employed in scientific research in the technology sector may reach the first place in the world by 2015. By 2020 Beijing plans to spend more of its GDP on research than the EU. At the same time, in India, where there are more engineering graduates than in the United States and the information technology sector is at the forefront of the world, there are only 24 personal computers per 1,000 people.

Noting this contradiction between the success of Indian researchers and developers in the world and the low level of penetration of modern technologies in the life of Indian society, The Economist columnist Simon Cox writes that "...India means more to modern technology than modern technology means to India. " 15

India's information technology and business process outsourcing sector has recovered from the crisis as the fastest growing segment of the economy. 16 In 2010, its sales exceeded $70 billion. Of this amount, information technologies (primarily software products) accounted for $64 billion 17.

Even before the economic crisis, the Indian government considered the country's development prospects for many years to come. The medium-term plans of the Government of India are presented in the country's Development Concept until 2020. 18

India has achieved impressive success in the tertiary sector (services) of the modern economy, becoming a global producer of services in the modern segment of this area of the economy. But its achievements in the primary (agriculture) and secondary (industry) sectors are much more modest. This calls into question the sustainability of India's development in the medium term, as bottlenecks in the economy, lagging industries, and poverty can hinder the development of the country's economy as a whole. Modern export-oriented services will become an enclave surrounded by a distressed country.

China shows an example of more balanced development of the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of its economy. Economic reforms in the country began with agriculture; rural industry, along with special economic zones in coastal areas, played a major role in the progressive course of reforms.

We are impressed by the high growth rates and volume of such a large economy as the Indian one, and the brilliant success of exporting services of manufacturers of Indian software products. However, these successes should not obscure the real challenges: India will have to speed up its traditional problems of food production and industrialization. This will strengthen the economic development base of the country as a whole and create the foundation for sustainable development in the long term.

BRICS remains a rapidly growing group of large States. But the heterogeneity of this formation, which has always been great, will increase rather than decrease in the future.


1 Indiskie ekonomisty o prioritetakh razvitiya [Indian Economists on Development Priorities]. BIKI, 2011, No. 9, p.16.

Rastyannikov V. G. 2 Agrarian India: Paradoxes of economic growth. The second half of the XX century-the beginning of the XXI century. Moscow, IV RAS, 2010, p. 9.

3 Ibid., p. 95.

Goryacheva A.M. 4 What is the future of the Asian giant // East (Oriens). 2010, N 2, p. 109.

Michael Schuman. 5 India vs. China: Whose Economy is Better? // Time Thursday, January 28, 2010 - http://www.time.com/ time/world/article/0,8599,1957281.00.html

6 Ibidem.

7 Ibid.

8 Bishop move. In 30 years, the Indian economy will develop faster than the Chinese economy / / Rossiyskaya Gazeta. India Special Issue, September 17, 2010.

9 On the Indian labor market / / BIKI. 2010, N 116.

10 Simon Cox running fast. A survey of technology in India and China // The Economist, November 8, 2007.

11 Is this the 'BRICs Decade'? // BRICs Monthly Issue. May 20, 2010. N 10/03.

12 On the world car market / / BIKI. 2010, N 100, p. 10.

13 Na rynke stroitel'noi tekhniki Indii [On the construction equipment market in India]. 2010, N 7, p. 10.

14 Highways in India / / BIKI. 2010, N 117, p. 10.

15 Simon Cox running fast...

Malyarov O. V. 16 Modernization and structural shifts in the Indian economy - http://www.ivran.ru/project-modernization-models/253

17 Business process outsourcing is the transfer to external firms of some of the tasks that were previously performed only by the firms themselves. For example, this is the transfer of firm " B "to maintain the accounting records of firm"A". Such services cover a part of working with clients, reporting, and analysis. This practice became possible with the development of email.

18 Indian Economy Overview. India Brand Equity Foundation - http://www.ibef.org/home.aspx


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