The second most populous country and the largest democracy in the world has passed the next stage of its political development: the 15th elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament. Like all major events in India, the election was impressive in its scale. They were held in 5 stages - from April 16 to May 13, 2009. More than a thousand political parties took part in the elections, with 8,070 candidates contesting 542 parliamentary seats. 59-60% of the 714 million citizens eligible to vote turned out at 829,000 polling stations.

For the convenience of voters, an additional 141.4 thousand new polling stations were opened in the country. For the first time, electronic voting was used on a pan-Indian scale. Order was protected by 6 million employees of the police and other law enforcement agencies.

This is not to say that the elections went smoothly everywhere. There were attempts by extremists to disrupt the vote, there were clashes between supporters of rival parties. Other unconstitutional methods of "persuading" the voter were also used.

The Times of India reported on numerous cases of "blatant vote buying": "Voters know that elections are a time to make money and willingly put their votes up for auction. In the face of intense competition and the lack of serious social programs, the parties have no choice but to pay with money, but this circumstance could hardly significantly distort the election results. "Voters take money from many parties, but in the end, they vote for the one they support." ¹

The election results came as a surprise to many. And some were shocked. The leaders of the Indian National Congress (INC) did not expect their party to win the election by such a large margin, and the leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did not expect that they would lose by such a crushing score.

PROBLEMS ARE ETERNAL AND MOMENTARY

To better understand the choice of the Indian electorate, it is necessary to become more familiar with the problems that concern them and the behavior of the political parties that promise to solve them.

Despite the remarkable progress that India has made over the past decade in developing its economy and civil society, the problems of mass poverty, basic goods prices, taxes, disenfranchisement of women and members of low - ranking communities-Adivasis and Dalits, the situation of religious minorities, bureaucracy and corruption remain relevant for all elections.

In addition to these eternal problems, every election is marked by smaller issues that, by force of circumstances, come to the forefront of politics.

On the eve of the election, the Central Election Commission of India (CEC) released two interesting documents. One of them - "Regional problems" - was prepared for the last, 14th general elections (2004), the second-"National problems" - for the current 15th.

Based on a survey of voters, the commission concluded that in addition to the "eternal" issues listed, the upcoming elections will include topics of naxalism, criminalization of politics, family political dynasties, glamorization of the electoral process, as well as Kashmir and relations with Pakistan. These problems also did not appear all of a sudden. India has lived with them for decades. The Commission issued them for

parentheses, because the quantitative side of these phenomena has turned into quality, and they have become a serious obstacle to ensuring peace and order, to the development of the democratic process in the country.

The Naxalists are Maoist groups that wage an armed struggle in the jungle against the ruling regime in order to build a classless society. They attack police stations, state institutions, and "liquidate" landlords and moneylenders. Often their victims are innocent ordinary people. Naxalists account for about 88% of reported homicides and gun violence. On the eve of the 14th general election, ³ the CEC ranked this movement as a regional issue. But by the 15th election, naxalism had already spread to 12 states. Among them are such large ones as Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, West Bengal and others.⁴

The Commission recognizes the objective basis of the Naxalist movement: "The Naxalists claim to represent the most oppressed citizens of India, who have not been affected by economic progress and have been spared democracy." These are Adivasis, Dolits and the" poorest of the poorest " people in India. "They work as landless labourers for negligible remuneration, often not reaching the officially established minimum wage." ⁵

The Naxalists also attempted to disrupt the 15th general election. They attacked polling stations, broke down electronic voting machines, and beat up voters. By the afternoon of the first day of voting, 17 people had already died at their hands.

Criminalization of politics and corruption are another issues that concern the country.

Power in India has long been a means of profit. Therefore, crime has rushed to the state Parliament and legislative assemblies. The threat of clogging up the Lok Sabha with a criminal element is particularly acute before the current elections. According to the CEC, approximately 40% of Lok Sabha candidates nominated by leading political parties have been prosecuted for crimes ranging from gang violence, extortion, disorderly conduct, defamation to attempted murder⁶. The CEC tries to block these people from entering the parliament, but it cannot do anything without appropriate decisions of the courts. The courts consider such cases for years and with an eye to the post of the criminal. Despite the monstrous scale of corruption in the country, no major politician has yet been jailed for taking a bribe.

According to the CEC's forecasts, the dynastic nature of the government, nepotism and nepotism in politics should not have passed by the attention of voters in the 15th elections. "These elections differ in many ways from the previous ones," the commission document said. - We see a new generation of representatives of political dynasties entering politics. It moves in a dense stream. The older generation makes way for him."

The first person named in the document is Rahul Gandhi, the "heir" of the Nehru-Gandhi political family. This family has given rise to six INC presidents and three Indian prime ministers: "Rajiv Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and now Rahul Gandhi have become part of the Indian political scene thanks to their dynastic name." Politics became the family occupation and lifestyle of the Maharani family* Dholpur, Scindia, Chautala, Deora and many others, "their children have followed in their parents 'footsteps." ⁷

The question of Sonia Gandhi's Italian origin and the prospects of her political career has not been exhausted either: "... from the very first days of Sonia Gandhi's entry into politics, this topic divides society into her strong supporters and fierce opponents." This issue was first raised by the BJP. But even in the INC, a number of leaders opposed the election of its party president, since this post automatically makes it the main contender for the post of prime minister. Over time, the hype surrounding the origin of S. Gandhi subsided. But before the elections, at the initiative of political opponents of the Congress, it flared up again.⁸

This year's elections will be headed by

* Maharaja's wife, Princess.

more than ever, the CEC noted. The BJP, INC. and other political parties organized a gambling hunt for movie stars and other celebrities to use them in the election campaign or offer them as candidates from their parties.⁹ And everything would be fine if the voter did not ask the question: what will be the use of such deputies in the parliament?

All Indian governments have tried to establish peace in Kashmir and improve relations with Pakistan. These tasks are constantly featured in the programs and manifestos of political parties going to the polls. The Cabinets of both Atal Bihari Vajpayee (BJP) and Manmohan Singh (INC) have made efforts in this direction. This is not to say that these efforts have failed. India agreed to resume dialogue with Pakistan on Kashmir, and Pakistan promised to eliminate terrorist bases on its territory. But the situation remains precarious. Any terrorist act carried out by radical Islamists, the CEC warned, could negate all the work done.¹⁰ Such an act occurred in November last year in Mumbai. It instantly affected relations between the two countries and exacerbated the Hindu-Muslim contradictions in India.

To this list of national and regional issues, local issues should be added: lack of roads, lack of water, power outages, consequences of droughts or floods, alienation of cultivated land for free economic zones, environmental damage caused by industrial construction, etc.

Before each election, all political actors express their willingness and ability to "resolve", "eradicate", and "correct" everything that oppresses, irritates, and upsets people in approximately the same terms.

But very much of what was promised remains on paper. The life of an ordinary person changes little. In these circumstances, it is very difficult for an ordinary voter to form an opinion in favor of one or another candidate, one or another party. Its electoral behavior largely depends on how the election scenario develops.

CHANGING THE SCRIPT

Even 8 to 9 months before the elections, the general disposition of political forces in the country was relatively clear.

As in the previous 15 elections, the elector had to give preference to one of the two parties, or rather one of the political blocs led by them-the INC and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), or the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). There was no doubt about who would lead the future government. If the INC won, Manmohan Singh would be Prime Minister, and if the BJP won, Lal Krishna Advani would be Prime Minister.

Both candidates for the post of prime minister are well-known people with a lot of supporters. Manmohan Singh, 78, who headed the Congress government from 2004 to 2009 , is an intelligent, likable man, a scholar of economics, author of economic reforms in the 1990s. He is criticized for his soft management style, for the "nuclear deal" with the United States. But in a country plagued by corruption, he enjoys a reputation as one of the most honest and incorruptible politicians.

L. K. Advani is an 81-year-old veteran of Indian politics, leader of the BJP, and one of the theorists of Hindutva's "Hindu nationalism" movement. In the Government, Vajpayee served as Deputy Prime Minister. He led the campaign for the demolition of the Babur Mosque in Ayodhya, allegedly built on the site of the temple of the God Rama. By doing so, he earned the respect of the supporters of " Hindu nationalism "and the hatred of Muslims and other"religious minorities". Since then, Advani has been trying to improve his reputation as an ardent Hindutva supporter by flirting with secularists and Muslims. In 2005, with the aim of improving relations with Pakistan, the-

I made a trip to Islamabad. This" flexibility " is being attacked by orthodox Hindutva leaders. He is known as an experienced politician and a tough administrator.

This scenario of holding elections remained valid until June 2008, when the left-wing parties CPI (M) and CPI broke with Congress in protest against the "nuclear deal" with the United States and decided to rely on the process of regionalization of Indian politics. The Communists ' break with the INC played the role of a fatal pebble that causes landslides in the mountains. Following the left, two other important INC allies, Samajwadi porti (SP) led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RDD) led by Lalu Prasad Yadav, left the OPA, as the Congress failed to agree with them on the number of deputies to be nominated from each party. And in the 14th general elections, the left and the two parties mentioned above gave OPA 116 additional parliamentary seats and ensured his coming to power.

The NDA has also undergone major changes. The Biju Janta Dal (BDD) in Orissa and the Janata Dal United (JDJ) in Bihar have left the group. The BJP has virtually no allies left in the south of the country. The party's only hope now was to increase the number of MPs in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar. As for his other remaining NDA allies, such as Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Rashtriya lok Dal (RLD), they could hardly improve the situation.

Many felt that in the current situation, both the INC and the BJP were weakened to the limit. As an Age political commentator G. Talwalkar wrote, " Congress will meet the election without being the ruling party in almost any state in Northern India. In most of these states, with the exception of Rajasthan and Delhi, he is in opposition. In Bihar and West Bengal, its role has been negligible for 20 years. In the south, with the exception of Andhra Pradesh, he barely breathes. In Maharashtra, the INC is in power only because it has allied itself with the Nationalist Congress Party... The BJP's position is no better. It rules only in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka. In the most populous states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the BJP's position is weak. " ¹¹

The weak positions of the INC and BJP cast doubt on the prospects of the alliances they led and dictated a new line of behavior for political forces. It was believed that both of these formations were drained of blood, have approximately equal forces, and neither of them would gather a parliamentary majority. There was a threat of a" hung "or" hung " parliament that could not form a government. And if one of the two leading parties gets such a right, it will only be with the support of other, non-aligned forces. But this government would be weak, ineffective and, most importantly, dependent even on small parties.

Parties began to adapt to this new election scenario. This scenario did not require a majority of seats in parliament, and there was no need to join the main blocs. It was important to bring in more of their own deputies, who would become the subject of political bargaining.

MULTIPLYING ALLIANCES

After leaving the OPA, the CPI (M) and the CPI started to create the so-called Third Front, which opposes the coalitions led by the Congress and the BJP. The Third front included 10 parties, the largest of which was the Bahujan Samaj Party ( BSP) - the party of Dolits led by Mayawati.

Mayawati is the first Dalit woman to head the government of one of India's largest states, Uttar Pradesh. She became widely known for her multi-million dollar fortune, her love of diamonds, and her diatribes against the upper castes, in defense of the underprivileged and exploited. Hoping to expand the social base of her electorate, Mayawati sharply lowered the accusatory tone of her statements before the elections and even nominated a number of prominent representatives of higher castes and Muslims on behalf of her party.

Among the participants of the Third Front was the regional nationalist party Telugu Desam, led by Chandrababu Naidu , one of the youngest and most dynamic politicians in India, a reformer, a supporter of market relations and bourgeois modernization. As the head of the government of Andhra Pradesh from 1995 to 2004, he managed to attract large loans from abroad, boosted the state's economy, and turned its capital Hyderabad into a major center of the electronics industry. Critics accuse him of paying little attention to fighting rural poverty and failing to crack down on the Naxalists. The front also included the regional nationalist parties Telengana Rashtriya Samiti, All India anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Biju Janata Dal.

The multiplication of electoral alliances resulted in the formation of a Fourth political bloc, which included the former allies of the INC-SP and RDD.

This bloc (or front) is based on the authority of the leaders of its constituent parties and on caste solidarity. Mulayam Singh Yadav, the head of the Joint Venture and former Defense Minister of India, and Lalu Prasad Yadav, the head of the RDD and the recent Chief Minister of Bihar, calculated that the name Yadav would unite millions of farmers who belong to the Yadav caste hierarchy in the country's two largest states. In addition, both leaders enjoy the support of Muslims, with-

putting a solid block of votes in both regions. Depending on the election results, Lok Janashakti and some very small parties promised support to the front.

Of course, the leaders of the Third and Fourth Fronts were not so naive as to hope to surpass the INC-led alliance or the BJP coalition in terms of votes or parliamentary seats. They assumed that both major blocks would suffer irreparable losses and would be forced to bargain with them. The third Front, where the role of Communists is strong, being an association of secularist parties, focused on developing such relations with the INC. He hoped to use his parliamentary mandates to decide the fate of the future government (in exchange for posts in it, of course). And if the INC was in an absolute minority, the Third Front itself could claim to form a government with the support of Congress and its allies. "CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat has long dreamed of creating a Third Front against the INC and the BJP, "wrote G. Talwalkar, an Age political commentator. "He and his party colleagues seem confident that both of these national parties will be defeated, and then the Third Front will come to power in the center." ¹²

The parties of the fourth front expected the same thing as the Third Front-to sell their support to either of the two main alliances, but at a lower price.

PARADE OF CONTENDERS

The situation of complete uncertainty forced both rival parties, just in case, to expand the range of possible candidates for the post of prime minister of the future government.

In addition to M. Singh, the United Progressive Alliance considered the candidacy of Rahul Gandhi and even Sonia Gandhi, despite her categorical refusal to join the previous government. Rahul Gandhi-Son of Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi, General Secretary of INC., Member of Parliament since 2004. By proposing his candidacy, INC hoped to attract young voters, who now make up the majority of the electorate.

S. Gandhi, the widow of Prime Minister R. Gandhi, who was assassinated in 1991 , is the head of the Nehru-Gandhi family, became the leader of the INC in 1998, and was elected to Parliament in 1999. She resigned from the post of prime minister of the government after the victory of the INC in the 2004 elections. Political opponents accused her of foreign origin, lack of political experience, etc. However, today no one denies her role as the head of the INC.

Sharad Pawar, the leader of the Nationalist Congress Party and a well-known figure in India, made his claims clear. In 1991, he was Minister of Defense of the central Government, then returned to his home state of Maharashtra as Chief Minister. In 1999, in protest against the appointment of S. Gandhi as the leader of the INC, he left the party, but after 2004 he rejoined the Congress and served as Minister of Agriculture in the government of Manmohan Singh. Pawar is also the head of the Indian Cricket Council. In a country that is completely sick of cricket, this adds to its credibility and popularity.

In the ranks of the NDA, along with Advani, the figure of Narendra Modi appeared. N Modi is one of the leading figures of the BJP. He was General Secretary of the BJP from 1998 to 2001 and Chief Minister of Gujarat from 2001. Writer and poet. He has connections in industrial and financial circles in India and abroad. The state's economy has made impressive progress. Domineering, charismatic personality, hard-line Hindutva devotee. With his connivance, there were bloody Hindu-Muslim clashes in Gujarat in 2002, during which more than a thousand citizens were killed.

The Third Front parties have agreed that Mayawati (BSP) will become Prime Minister if he comes to power. This was her main condition for joining the alliance. But candidates from other parties - Chandrababu Naidu, the ambitious film star Jayalalitha-were also seriously considered.

Among the leaders of the Fourth Front, the most likely candidate for this post was considered to be

M. S. Yadav (JV), although L. P. Yadav (RDD) did not rule out such a possibility.

In an environment of uncertainty, along with well - known politicians-contenders for the post of prime minister, many people from the outside, marginals, also applied for the post.

"This election," wrote Indian publicist Singh Nihal in late April 2009, " will go down in the annals of the Indian general election as a unique one that whetted the appetite of a record number of regional leaders who, figuratively speaking, wanted to throw their hats in the circle of contenders for the country's highest public office. They are motivated by the well-recognized vulnerability of the two main parties... Regional leaders believe that if they fail to get the top job, they will raise their bargaining price with either side when forming a ruling coalition. " ¹³

ORACLES ARE PUT TO SHAME

But the final and weighty word was spoken by the voter.

The choice of voters in India is always a black box mystery. The results of voting are what you can see "at the exit" from this mailbox. But what happened in the box itself remains a mystery for a long time, which experts - sociologists, political scientists, etc. - are fighting over until the next election.

And the 15th general election was a"nightmare for experts". Commenting on the election results, a well-known political commentator P. G. Thakurta admitted: "We thought we knew everything that 700 million voters think, but in reality we were even less well-off than astrologers."

What happened in the black box ? The eggheads assumed that under the influence of the regionalization process, the pan-Indian theme would recede into the background, regional and local problems would take its place, and regional and local parties would seriously displace giant parties. Some analysts even sounded the alarm that this process could lead to further autonomy of the regions and affect the strength of the Indian state.

The economic crisis was supposed to worsen the living conditions of the masses, increase discontent with the ruling regime and alienate the electorate from the moderate Congress, and voters would have to choose between the right-wing BJP party and the left-wing parties-the CPI (M) plus the CPI.

But the voter did not go along with the regional and local parties, did not support their desire for regional autonomy and spoke in favor of strengthening the central government and moderate, centrist policies.

In the last election, the INC and BJP elected a total of 322 members to Parliament, which is an absolute majority in the country's highest legislative body. The INC regained its position as the largest party in Parliament, which it had lost in 1991-1996, and the alliance it led became the most influential political force in the country.

The BJP has suffered a major defeat in its competition with the Congress, perhaps the biggest defeat in its entire history of power struggles. There is no accident in this either. In the opinion of the mass voter, the BJP, despite all its reservations and contradictions with hard-line Hindutva supporters, remains an organic part of it and bears its share of responsibility for communal riots, for anti-Muslim pogroms in Gujarat in 2002, and for the persecution of Christians in the south of the country in 2008.

Only 10 mandates were not enough to get the right to form the OPA government independently. But, as expected, there were more than enough people willing to join the ruling bloc in the current parliament. Therefore, the Congress needed only a few days to complete the formation of the country's highest executive power. Manmohan Singh was again at the head of the government. This means that the new government will continue the course of the previous cabinet, but even more confidently and firmly.

The current Government may have a full constitutional term in office.

But no one can give a full guarantee that the ruling alliance will retain its current composition in the future. The ideology of this alliance is amorphous: Like other political groupings in India, it is made up of parties of various kinds, representing different interests - national, regional, ethnic, religious-communal, caste and social-class. All of them have one thing in common - the desire for power. But there are a lot of young and ambitious leaders in their ranks who are eager to get to the top, trying to push the old guard both in the center and in the field.

In any case, INK received an impressive mandate for power. And how the party will dispose of it - the future will show.

¹ The Times of India, 16.05.2009.

² http://www.indian-elections.com/resultsupdate/

³ Regional Issues for 14th Lok Sabha Elections - http://www.indian-elections.com/regional-issues/

⁴ Ibidem.

⁵ Ibid.

⁶ Indian Elections. National Issues - http://www.indian-elections.com/national-issues/

⁷ Ibidem.

⁸ Ibid.

⁹ Ibid.

¹⁰ Ibid.

^{Talwalkar Govind.} 11 Ominous rise of regional parties // The Asian Age, 18.04.2009.

¹² Ibid.

^{Singh Nihal S.} 13 Tale of six leaders in search of a PM // The Asian Age, 29.04.2009.

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