R. V. DMITRIEV

Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Lomonosov Moscow State University

India Keywords:, demographic policy, state level, regional level

The first statements about the need for a consistent national population policy were made in India in the first half of the 20th century, before the country gained independence. At the same time, family planning policy in India was carried out mainly "from below". To assess the effectiveness of current programs in this area, we will try to analyze their features at the state and regional levels.

The beginning of the implementation of the ideas of the future Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and his associates in this direction was laid 13 years after the creation of the Sub-Commission on Population Problems within the National Planning Committee in 1938. In 1940, the Sub-Commission adopted a resolution stating that "... family planning and limiting the number of children are very important, and the State should adopt a policy to support them"¹. But it was not until 1951 that these slogans were given a legal foundation in the form of the provisions of the country's first 5-year development plan (1951-1956). While emphasizing the voluntary nature of intra-family birth control (which should be based on natural control), the developers of the National Family Planning Program nevertheless emphasized the need for scientific justification and promotion of other methods.

STATE LEVEL

The measures taken since then by the Government of the country to regulate the size of the population were, for the most part, also voluntary (or rather, voluntary-compulsory) in nature. Only a short period in the mid-1970s was marked by the large-scale use by government agencies of methods of forced sterilization of the population, which were figuratively called the "Sanjay effect" (in honor of Sanjay Gandhi, the youngest son of Indira Gandhi, the daughter of J. R. R. Tolkien, who was then in power). Nehru)^*. And if at present 95.6% of all sterilizations are performed by women, ³ then Sanjay Gandhi relied on male sterilization.

Nevertheless, the demographic policy implemented in the 1970s (and the family planning policy in India is, in its essence, a demographic policy) brought its results: over the decade, the average annual population growth rate of the country, albeit slightly, decreased - from 2.24 to 2.23%. This is the first time this has happened since India's independence in 1947, and the trend continues to the present day (1.64% on average per year during the first decade of the twenty-first century).

Yet the predictions of a significant number of demographers have come true: in 2000, the country's population exceeded 1 billion. human. Awareness of the enormous demographic pressure on natural, economic, social and other objects has led to the need to implement measures not only at the level of the entire country, but also at the level of individual regions. And this was the reason for the beginning of an important stage in the implementation of family planning policy - in the same year, the creation of the National Population Commission headed by the country's Prime Minister A. B. Vajpayee was announced. It included prominent doctors, demographers, and other members of the public. The main objectives of the new National Population Policy were put forward, which were set aside for 10 years (until 2010) ^.4:

1) universal access to high-quality contraceptives, which should lead to a reduction in the total birth rate to 2.1 children and the establishment of a two-child family as the norm of society;

2) 100% coverage of birth, death and marriage registration;

3) universal access to information on methods of birth control and the availability of absolutely free choice of citizens in relation to family planning;

4) reduction of the infant mortality rate to 30% and a sharp reduction in the number of births of children with a body weight deficit (less than 2.5 kg);

5) universal immunization of children, complete elimination of polio and almost complete elimination of tetanus and measles;

6) exclusion of marriage cases for girls under 18 years of age;

7) acceptance of 100% of deliveries by qualified personnel;

8) curbing the spread of sexually transmitted diseases;

9) reduction of maternal mortality to less than 100 cases per 100 thousand live births;

10) universality of primary education and reduction of the number of interruptions in secondary education-

* For more information, see: Gorokhov S. A., Dmitriev R. V. The population of India is growing at a record pace / / Asia and Africa Today, 2011,

N 8.

Table 1

Desired trends in the main demographic indicators of some states of India in accordance with the objectives of the regional population policy by 2010-2011.

Compiled by: Goa Population Policy. Porvorim, Directorate of Health Services, Government of Goa. 2007; Health and Population Policy of Uttaranchal. Dehradun, Department of Medical Health and Family Welfare, Government of Uttaranchal. 2002; Maharashtra Govt. Resolution. State Population Policy. Mumbai, Public Health Department, Maharashtra Government. 2000; National Rural Health Mission. Andhra Pradesh State. Project Implementation Plan. Part A. Hyderabad, Department of Health, Government of Andhra Pradesh. 2005; Population Policy of Gujarat. Gandhinagar, Health and Family Welfare Department, Government of Gujarat. 2002; Population Policy of Madhya Pradesh. Bhopal, Department of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Madhya Pradesh. 2000; Population Policy of Rajasthan. Jaipur, Department of Family Welfare, Government of Rajasthan. 1999; Population Policy of Uttar Pradesh. Lucknow, Department of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Uttar Pradesh. 2000.

education at the first and second stages is up to less than 20% for both sexes.

However, even in the twenty-first century, family planning methods "from below" prevail in India. For example, in 2004, Uttar Pradesh had a gun - for-Sterilization program, under which Indians who wanted to buy firearms or obtain a license for them had to submit candidates for sterilization. This program was also implemented in some parts of Madhya Pradesh ⁱⁿ 2008.5

REGIONAL LEVEL

The first region whose population policy development experience in 1939 can be considered a harbinger of a national strategy in this direction, ⁶ was the Bombay Presidency^.

However, the preparation of family policy projects at the regional level became widespread only at the end of the 20th century. And the coincidence in time with the adoption of the National Population Policy in 2000 is not accidental.

Let us try to determine ^{* *} what are the regional features of population policy that take into account the characteristic local features of the development of administrative-territorial units of modern India (see Table 1).

The state of Andhra Pradesh became the first in the country's recent history to adopt its own regional population policy (1997). At that time, Andhra Pradesh had the highest mortality rates among the states of Southern India. ⁷ However, reducing the birth rate (primarily through widespread promotion of new methods of contraception) has also been included among the main goals aimed at achieving certain demographic indicators by 2000, 2010 and 2020.

It is noteworthy that the National Population Policy adopted later assumed that the national average of the total birth rate would reach 2.1 children by 2010. At the same time, according to the regional strategy developers, this level should have been reached in Andhra Pradesh by 2000. On the other hand, the increased initial values of mortality rates did not allow us to hope for a reduction in maternal mortality in the state to the required level (less than 100 cases per 100 thousand live births) by 2010.

According to the Prime Minister of the Government of Andhra Pradesh, the implementation of

* Correlating administrative boundaries in India at that time and today is quite difficult. In this case, we are talking about the coastal areas of the modern state of Maharashtra, parts of Karnataka and Gujarat.

** However, we emphasize that further the sequence of analysis of the goals that the government of each state planned to achieve by certain dates of the XXI century does not correspond to the path "from the worst to the best "(or vice versa), but only to the chronological order of adoption of the "guide to action".

These measures were supposed to lead to "changes in the size, structure and distribution of the population, improving the standard and quality of life." At the same time, the decline in the birth rate was proclaimed "the essence of state development"⁸.

A fundamental difference between Rajasthan's population policy, adopted in 1999, is its close attention to environmental issues. The documents stressed that the state accounts for less than 1% of the country's available water resources: the impact on natural resources of the state's population, equal in 2000 to the population of Italy (about 57 million people), "leads to environmental degradation"⁹. In this respect, Uttar Pradesh is also close to it. The Governments of only two of these states were clearly aware that it would not be possible to reduce the total birth rate to 2.1 children by 2010. In addition to the tasks mentioned above, the following tasks were included::

- increase the average age of marriage for girls from 15 in 1993 to 18 in 2010.;

- to increase the share of births accepted by qualified specialists to 100% by 2005 (in 1995-only 33%).;

- completely eliminate childhood polio by 2000.;

- increase immunization coverage for at least 90% of children by 2007 (up from 38% in 1996).

It is emphasized that those residents of Rajasthan who marry after January 26, 2001, before reaching the age set by the state Government, are deprived of the opportunity to be elected to local and regional authorities.

Madhya Pradesh was the last state to adopt its own policy in this area before its national counterpart was approved. Its distinctive feature is probably the widest range of tasks among the relevant programs of all the states of India (see Table 1). In addition to these main tasks, the regional population policy of the state included::

- increase the share of male sterilizations to 20% by 2011%;

- raise the average age of girls ' marriage to 18 years, and the birth of their first child to 21 years by this time.;

- increase the gap between the birth of the first and second child to 3 years or more by 2005.;

- the share of deliveries made by unqualified specialists should not exceed 10% by 2011.%;

- motivate couples with two or more children to use methods of contraception, the result of which is irreversible;

- develop differentiated options for regional population policies, taking into account territorial differences in mortality and birth rates within the state;

- increase immunization coverage for at least 70% of children by 2005 and 90% by 2009.;

- increase the availability of condoms to prevent sexually transmitted diseases;

- provide quality family planning services for all infertile couples at the district level by 2005.;

- Ensure universal access to primary education by 2005 and that at least 30% of girls aged 14-15 will be able to complete a full primary education by 2005 and 50% by 2011.

As a kind of incentive measure, the Government of Madhya Pradesh provides for the exclusion from participation in local and regional government elections of persons who have more than two children after January 26, 2001. In the event that the third child is born after the election of one or both parents, the latter will be suspended from performing their work duties.

Uttar Pradesh was the first state in India to formulate its own population policy after the publication of a national document. It is noteworthy that this happened on July 11, 2000-on World Population Day. According to S. Gupta, Head of the Ministry of Family Welfare of the Government of Uttar Pradesh, the reasons for the five-year delay (compared to the implementation period at the state level) were "the colossal size of the state, its cultural diversity, huge population and lack of industrial capacity"¹⁰ (according to 2011 data). the state's population is 199 million 581 thousand people).

Among the important points of state policy until 2011 were the following::

- raise the age of the mother at the birth of the first child to 20 years;

- at least 2/3 of all deliveries must be delivered by qualified personnel;

- up to 85% of children should be immunized;

- raise the average age of marriage for girls to 19.5 years by 2016.

It should also be noted that only two states in India - Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh-provided for the possibility of implementing this policy at the sub-regional level. Depending on the demographic situation in certain areas of the state, it was assumed that some areas of regional policy would be strengthened and others weakened.

As in other states, the main principle of population policy in Gujarat is "... respect for the reproductive rights of men and women"¹¹. The main objectives were declared to reduce gender discrimination and expand women's rights and freedoms by 2010, as well as to achieve a level of simple reproduction of the population. Moreover, by 2010, all births in the state were expected to be delivered by qualified staff, and all babies were immunized.

According to regional policy makers, the achievement of these goals should be supported by structural and financial reforms aimed at improving "reproductive health and children's health" ¹².

Uttarakhand is a unique state in implementing its own policy. Created only at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, this state was able to

* Republic Day, dedicated to the anniversary of the adoption of the Constitution of India in 1950.

Table 2

Share of national and regional , %

Compiled by: Family Welfare Statistics in India. New Delhi, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Statistics Division. 2011; Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2010. New Delhi, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India. 2012.

start implementing it. The Government of Uttarakhand considered "decentralization, coordination of joint actions of various organizations, as well as broad involvement of civil society"¹³ as the main approaches, including in order to increase the average life expectancy after birth to 70 years.

Goa was one of the last states to adopt its own regional policy (in 2007). It is emphasized that its purpose is " ... to improve the quality of life of the population of Goa by achieving a balance between the size of the population and the amount of resources consumed, and improving the health status of the population, especially women and children, is a necessary condition for sustainable development"¹⁴. However, due to the rather late adoption of the state's own strategy in this area, the time for solving its main tasks has been shifted from 2010 to 2015, including::

- 100% coverage of children with immunization;

- increase the share of male sterilizations to 20%.

In the period up to 2010, the following tasks were planned::

- introduction of the "Basics of family life" subject in schools, as well as the creation of specialized adolescent departments in all health centers in the state;

- ensuring the universality of education and reducing the proportion of children who do not complete the full course of study;

- full coverage of modern medical services for pregnant women no later than the first trimester of pregnancy.

Maharashtra opens a group of those subjects of the Indian Federation whose population policy is not officially adopted and is only a project. Its tasks are more recommendatory than mandatory^* (see Table 1).

Despite the advisory nature of the state's population policy, the latter is essentially voluntary and compulsory. Indeed, the Maharashtra Government has recognized a family with no more than two children as the "standard of a small family" since 2001: only those residents of the state who have adopted this standard are entitled to:

- receiving various kinds of subsidies;

- holding positions in the civil service;

- an affirmative decision on the part of the state to obtain a loan for the purchase of a car, housing construction, etc.;

- state reimbursement of medical expenses ¹⁵.

The Government of Karnataka has not formulated a population policy: some provisions are found only in the regional health policy adopted in 2004. The main reason for this is that most of the tasks that form the basis of National Population Policy are being solved at the state level by the turn of the millennium: achieving the total birth rate of 2.1 children; using modern methods of contraception for more than 60% of married couples, etc.

However, it is noteworthy that in Karnataka, as in most states, further actions in this direction imply "...protection of human rights and ...non-use of any form of coercion " ¹⁶. The State Government has set the following objectives::

- reducing the total birth rate to 2.1 children in each district by 2010.;

- stabilization of the state's population as a whole by 2030.;

- 100% coverage of birth, death and marriage registration;

- increasing the role of women in public life: preventing abortions during pregnancy with a female fetus based on the use of modern diagnostic methods;

- increasing the age of marriage for both sexes, as well as lengthening the period between the birth of the first and second child.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND PROSPECTS

The implementation of population policies in most of the above-mentioned states has now been completed. In this regard, it is possible to formulate not-

* The population policies of Kerala and Himachal Pradesh, formulated in 2003 and 2005-2006, respectively, have the same status.

Table 3

Dynamics of total birth rate values in Indian states implementing their own

Compiled from: Annual Health Survey 2010-11 Fact Sheet-Uttarakhand. New Delhi, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India. 2013; Rajan S.I. District Level Fertility Estimates for Hindus and Muslims // Economic and Political Weekly, 2005. Vol. 40, N 5; Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2011. New Delhi, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India. 2013.

* Note: the value of the indicator when rounded to hundredths is in the range from 1.81 to 1.84, i.e. in reality it exceeds the threshold value of 1.8 children stated in the documents of the regional population policy.

which are the final provisions in accordance with the results that were (or, conversely, were not) achieved.

The main characteristic feature of regional policy is the low degree of its effectiveness. Indeed, if you look at the available statistical sources, it becomes obvious that most of the states did not achieve the planned results (see Table 2).

It is noteworthy that there are no states that would have solved more than half of the regional population policy tasks by 2010. At the same time, only two states of Western India - Goa and Maharashtra-were able to implement more than 50% of the original national provisions. The economic potential of Mumbai, the financial capital and the country's largest city by population, has greatly contributed to this. However, the fact that not a single state in India has managed to reach the total birth rate values stated in regional documents is particularly worrying (see Table 1). 3), as well as the average age of girls ' marriage. On the contrary, campaigns to reduce mortality and introduce modern methods of contraception have been quite successful.

The data in Table 2 should not be misleading: such economically and demographically developed states as Goa, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have set a fairly high bar for themselves, which, albeit with some delay, will still be taken. At the same time, the depressed states of the BIMARU group^*, as well as the" breakaway " Uttarakhand, failed to reach the low level that was set as a prospect for 2010-2011. In this respect, Gujarat looks like a kind of limitrophic state: it is quite developed economically, but demographically it tends more towards its northern neighbor

- Rajasthan, rather than south

- Maharashtra.

It appears that most states that have adopted their own population policies will continue to implement them. Already, at least two states - Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu-have joined this group and are taking promising actions in this direction. Their demographic policies have been implemented to varying degrees before, but they have reached a certain borderline in 2010 with completely different results.

In this respect, Jharkhand is close to the BIMARU ^group17, which is quite natural, since it was part of Bihar before 2000. At the same time, Tamil Nadu is a unique administrative and territorial unit of India, which can only be compared with another state in the South-Kerala, as well as Goa, in terms of the effectiveness of demographic policy. It is these states that have solved almost all the tasks of the national demographic policy earlier than planned (2010): their population is characterized by one of the lowest total birth rates (1.6 - 1.7), infant (10-24) and maternal (less than 100) mortality rates, and the highest ^{* *} average age of marriage of girls, etc. In this regard, achieving even more impressive performance ¹⁸ in the implementation of the health and family welfare policy in Tamil Nadu by 2017 seems feasible.

Thus, we can say that the population giant of the South Asian subcontinent has made some progress in achieving the planned results of its population policy. However, regional disparities make significant adjustments to the mechanisms of this process. A large number of people of working age in the near future may become so demographic-

* Bihar, Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh.

** With the exception of Jammu and Kashmir, where the majority of the population is Muslim. This fact can be explained by the low proportion of officially registered marriages here (especially among the lower strata of the population).

This is a dividend that will contribute to India's emergence as a new superpower. However, according to the Government of the country, this will be possible only if two mandatory conditions are met^.:

1) improving health care and education in general, as well as improving the skills of the working population;

2) the economic growth rate should not only be high, but also ensure a decent level of wages in order to meet the basic needs of young people.

Indeed, at least until the middle of this century, the problem of the decline in the working-age population in India will not be decisive. In this regard, the need to convert quantity into quality comes to the fore, that is, to maximize the effective use of the country's accumulated human potential. This is relevant not only and not so much for India at the beginning of the XXI century, but for that India, which, without any doubt, will be one of the most influential players in the global geopolitical arena of the middle and end of the century. A gradual decline in the birth rate and an increase in life expectancy will lead to an increase in the proportion of older people, whose economic and social well-being will depend primarily on the degree of intensification of social production.

At the same time, experts ' expectations for India can be considered more optimistic even in comparison with the main demographic, economic and political rival - China. Thus, by 2050, all residents of India will have a daily income above the internationally established minimum subsistence level (currently $1.25)²⁰. The number of people living below the poverty line in China will reach 12.4 million, or 0.8% of the country's population ²¹. Most of them will be single elderly people living mainly in urban areas-the result of the "One family, one child"policy that has been implemented up to now. This socio-demographic threat is particularly relevant in connection with the urban transition that took place in 2012, when the urban population of China exceeded the population of rural areas.

The lag in urbanization, as well as a clear regional differentiation of demographic processes in India, in comparison with China, have as a consequence two opposite trends.

On the one hand, the Indian economy is developing more slowly, and the increasing demographic pressure on the productive forces is likely to prevent India from achieving the stunning success that China has achieved. At the same time, taking into account the Chinese experience and Chinese demographic policy mistakes will contribute to the sustainable development of India as the country's population reaches the target of 1.7 billion. people in the second half of the twenty-first century, when China is already entering the path of depopulation ²².

Moreover, India's unique trump card in this confrontation will be the uneven course of demographic processes in the country's states. The demographic wave of population aging will "cover" India gradually, spreading from the south and southwest to the north and northeast of the country (see Table). 1 and 2). At the moment when the states of Southern India begin to experience a clear shortage of labor resources, the sufficiently large population of the states of the North will become the "safety cushion" that, with the proper level of economic and social security, will be able to guarantee the progressive nature of sustainable development of the potential leader of the world list of the most populated states.

¹ National Commission on Population. Historical Prospective -http://populationcommission.nic.in/hp.htm

² India First Five Year Plan. Ch. 32 (Health) -http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/fiveyr/indexl.html

³ Family Welfare Statistics in India - 2011. New Delhi, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Statistics Division. 2011.

⁴ National Commission on Population...

^{Nilekani N.} 5 The image of a New India: The Evolution of Transformative Ideas. Moscow, Alpina Publishers. 2010, p. 50.

^{Rao G.R.} 6 A Population Policy for the Bombay Presidency // Journal of University of Bombay, 1939, N 8 (I).

⁷ Sample Registration System Bulletin. April 1999. Vol. 1, N 33 -http://jsk.gov.in/srs-bulletin/Bulletin_1999_Vol_33_No_l%20 April.pdf

^{Visaria P.} 8 Population Policy - http://data.undp.org.in/hdrc/ thematicResource/PopnDmgphy/Pravin Visaria.pdf

⁹ Ibidem.

¹⁰ National Colloquium on Population Policy. Development and Human Rights. New Delhi, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2003.

¹¹ Population Policy of Gujarat. Gandhinagar, Health and Family Welfare Department, Government of Gujarat. 2002.

^{Reddy M.R.} 12 Integrating Population into Development: Emergence of State Population Policies in India - http://iussp2005.princeton.edu/ download.aspx?submissionld-51260

¹³ Ibidem.

¹⁴ Goa Population Policy. Porvorim, Directorate of Health Services, Government of Goa. 2007.

¹⁵ Maharashtra Govt. Resolution. State Population Policy. Mumbai, Public Health Department, Maharashtra Government. 2000.

¹⁶ Karnataka State Integrated Health Policy. Bangalore, Department of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Karnataka. 2004.

¹⁷ A Policy Response to Increase Access to Family Planning Services for the Poor in Jharkhand, India. Washington, One Thomas Circle. 2010.

¹⁸ Policy Note on Health and Family Welfare. Chennai, Health and Family Welfare Department, Government of Tamil Nadu. 2012.

¹⁹ Faster, Sustainable and More Inclusive Growth. An Approach to the 12th Five Year Plan. New Delhi, Planning Commission. 2011; World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision - http://esa.un.org/unpd/ wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm

^{Hillebrand E.} 20 Poverty, growth, and inequality over the next 50 years // FAO Expert meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050, Rome, 24 - 26 June 2009 - ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/012/ak542e/ak542e 03.pdf

²¹ World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision Population Database - http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/index.asp?panel=l

²² World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision - http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm

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