The next 15th general election is being held in India. Experience shows that at least 55-60% of the 654 million eligible voters will turn up at the ballot box. They will elect 542 MPs to the country's supreme legislative body, the Lok Sabha. As in previous elections, the contest will be fought between two multi-party political blocs - the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress (INC) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The fight promises to be hot. The 2009 elections are being held in an environment of heightened social tensions caused by the global economic crisis and the country's shock from the terrorist attacks in Mumbai.
BETWEEN COMMUNALISM AND SECULARISM
The main rivals in the struggle for power in India were determined back in the 1950s, when the predecessors of the Bharatiya Janata Party appeared on the political arena of the country. Together with other parties, the BJP entered into a single battle with the undefeated Indian National Congress. In 1992, the Congress finally lost its monopoly on power. Since then, no political party has been able to win a majority in Parliament and form a government on its own. Only a coalition of parties can win. The first such coalition, the National Democratic Alliance, was formed in 1998. In the 13th general elections in 1999, the NDA won and remained in power until the end of the constitutional term, until 2004. The INC also resorted to working cooperation agreements with other parties. But he created his own coalition-the United Progressive Alliance-only on the eve of the 14th election. In this election, the OPA won. With the support of other non-alliance parties, he formed a government that still governs the country today.
The outcome of the 15th election depends on many factors. First of all, it depends on how stable the OPA and NDA will be. Both alliances are rather loose formations. They do not have central governing bodies, nor do they have mandatory discipline. Their composition may change both at the stage of preparation for the elections and after them. Theoretically, the possibilities for this are unlimited. The pluralism and fragmentation of Indian society, the presence of various types of interest groups - social class, caste, community, ethno-cultural, regional, etc. - create conditions for the existence of a very large number of political organizations.
According to the Central Election Commission of India, as of November 17, 2008, there were 1,007 registered political parties in the country. However, not all of them are suitable for the role of an alliance member. In the 14th 2004 elections, "only" 230 parties fielded candidates - 7 of them had the status of a national party (62.9% of votes were cast for them in total), 51 - regional (28.9%) and 172 local (4.0%).1. Therefore, if the composition of coalitions changes, it will be mainly due to the inclusion/exclusion of national and / or regional parties that collectively collect more than 90% of the vote.
The freedom of political maneuvering of both alliances in choosing allies is ensured by the similarity of their social base. They include people from all walks of life, communities,and groups. If there are any differences, they are insignificant. The active and conscious part of the electorate - the middle class-leans more towards the NDA. Up to 42% of the voters of this social group vote for it. Most of them come from castes of the middle ritual status-rich farmers, merchants, as well as specialists, technical intellectuals, managers and other representatives of the "new middle class". OPA is supported by up to 36% of the middle class. These are mainly the business, intellectual and political elite, as well as people from castes below the average ritual rank and religious minorities (Muslims, Sikhs, Christians). The most numerous stratum - "poor" and" very poor " people (these are citizens living below the poverty line-Zalits and Adivasis) - give a slightly higher preference to OPAS. Approximately 38% of this category of citizens vote for it. NDA accounts for no more than 36%. Anand Kurien, a columnist for the Business Standard newspaper, describes this part of the electorate as "emotional and sentimental creatures"2. Unlike the middle class, they are less rational, more trusting. They are easier under-
they are given to the influence of candidates ' charisma.
Both the OPA and the NDA have already taken this fact into account and named possible candidates for the posts of government leaders even before they published their election manifestos. At the OPA, it can be the young and charming Rahul Gandhi-the grandson of Indira Gandhi and the great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru. The NDA has placed its bets on Lal Krishna Advani, an 80-year-old veteran speaker and flexible politician.
The social programs of the OPA and the NDA do not differ much from each other in content and are clearly populist in nature. Both blocs promise voters economic growth, protection of local producers, fight against poverty and social inequality, development of education and health care, curbing inflation, bureaucracy and corruption; strengthening democracy and civil society, restoring law and order, and ridding society of violence and terror.
WHO BETS ON RELIGIOUS CHAUVINISM
The main difference between NDA and OPA is the attitude towards communalism and Hindu communalism in particular. The Constitution declared India a secular state. It guarantees all Indian citizens equal rights and freedoms, regardless of their community affiliation. In words, all political parties adhere to the principles of secularism, since the condition for their registration and admission to participate in elections is the obligation to comply with the norms of the Constitution. But reality does not fit into the framework of constitutional law. First of all, because in real life it is difficult to separate communality from communalism.
Communality is a complex of feelings, ideas and attitudes that imposes on a person belonging to any traditional type of group-caste, tribe, religion, etc. This is a natural form of identity, a familiar basis for self-organization of citizens. It is recognized by law as a means of preserving cultural identity and a habitual way of life. Theoretically, communality should not oppose one community to another, prevent them from living in peace and harmony.
Communalism is a form of xenophobia. It is characterized by intolerance, aggressiveness towards citizens of another community group. In the conditions of overpopulation, mass unemployment and the struggle for survival that are so characteristic of India, communalism often flows into communalism. The law does not pursue feelings or views, but its manifestations-discrimination, violence, etc.
The most widespread (and dangerous) type of communalism in India is Hindutva (or Hinduism) - Hindu religious chauvinism. Hindutva considers Hindus as a separate nation and advocates building a Hindu state (Hindu Rashtra), in which there should be no place for "foreign" religions, especially the religions of "aggressors" - Islam and Christianity. Hindu converts to Islam or Christianity should be banned, Hindutva said. Those who profess "foreign" religions should be returned to the bosom of Hinduism by any means, including coercion,or expelled from the country.
Hindutva is not only an ideology, it is a movement, and quite a massive one at that. It is represented by a group of organizations led by the Rashtriya Swayaksevak Sangh (RSS), known as the Sangh Parivar (Sangha Family). The family has a wide network of branches in India and abroad, where there is a more or less large Indian diaspora. The Sangha is joined by thousands of non-governmental voluntary organizations (NGOs) on a pan-Indian, regional and local scale-professional, women's, children's, youth; associations of peasants, artisans, businessmen, intellectuals, etc.
Hindutva attracts the Hindu layman not only because it indulges his communal prejudices. Its founders left a significant mark on the history of the liberation movement.
Sangha organizations are engaged in charity work, participate in the development of education and healthcare among the most downtrodden and disenfranchised groups of the population. They often carry out this activity within the framework of state programs. But the other side of the Sangha's activities is spreading xenophobic ideas, inciting inter-communal hatred, harassing Muslims and Christians, organizing anti-Muslim and anti-Christian pogroms, etc.For this purpose, it has special organizations, teams of militants, whose members are trained in special camps.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is not officially part of the Sangha. As a parliamentary party, it must adhere to the norms of the Constitution. It pursues a policy of "soft" Hindutva and speaks under the slogans of "cultural nationalism", patriotism and great power. The BJP is being attacked for this" soft-heartedness " by Hindutva radical elements. But in essence, it serves as its political organ. Many BJP leaders are pro-
We went to the RSS school. The Sangha Parivar assists the BJP in raising funds and mobilizing votes.
The BJP's connection to the Sangha Parivar was clearly evident during her time in power (1999-2004). Using the BJP's connivance and tacit support, Hindutva launched a massive attack on the ideology of secularism, on the secular foundations of society. Considerable budget funds were spent on the repair and construction of Hindu temples, on the construction of goshal-shelters for cows, which Hindus revere as sacred animals. At this time, the most rabid elements of the Sangha raised their heads. In 2002, they provoked anti-Muslim pogroms in the state of Gujarat, which were accompanied by unprecedented brutality and mass casualties.
The BJP formally distanced itself from these acts of vandalism and murder. They were conducted by affiliated organizations of the Sangh pari-vara-Bajrang Dal, Vishva Hindu Parishad and others. But the BJP, as the ruling party that led the government in central and Gujarat, did nothing to stop the carnage. Moreover, local leaders and activists of the BJP3 could be seen leading the mobs of rioters. The events in Gujarat sobered up a sane part of Indian society, including some moderate supporters of "cultural nationalism", which contributed to the defeat of the BJP and its allies in the 2004 elections.
The forces of secularism in India are represented by the Indian National Congress, the Communist Party of India, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and some regional secular parties. On the eve of the 14th general election, the CPI(M) joined the United Progressive Alliance specifically to block the BJP's path to power. But the forces of secularism lack commitment, consistency, and clarity of position. While secularism is synonymous with hateful atheism for many people in India, an all-religious country, Congress and its allies are doing very little to rid the public of this delusion. The State, for its part, in an effort to improve the social and material situation of the poorest and socially disadvantaged segments of the population, distributes aid not so much on a property basis as on a community basis. This can only lead to unhealthy competition and tension in relations between communities.
Even those parties that consider themselves secular play along with community interests and sentiments to attract voters. Commenting on the preparations for the upcoming 15th general election, former Indian Cabinet Secretary B. D. Deshmukh wrote in the Hindu newspaper in June 2008: "Political parties have already started courting castes, minorities and other backward classes" to mobilize votes.4 The flagship of secularism, Inc., is no exception. "Succumbing to the short-sighted desire to hit the easy jackpot, the Indian National Congress after Nehru, "writes the Tribune newspaper," constantly played community, regional and caste cards... or did nothing to counter the challenges of communalism. " 5
The blurring of the lines between communalism, communalism and secularism in the public consciousness, the similarity of the social programs of both political alliances, and the use of communal likes and dislikes in the political struggle put the mass Indian voter in a difficult position. Although the dividing line between the two competing forces runs along the lines of communalism and secularism, the voter ultimately makes his choice based on what a particular party or deputy has done to ease his situation.
ANTI-INCUMBENCY, EBB AND FLOW
It is believed that the electoral behavior of the mass Indian voter obeys a certain rhythm. Having once given his vote to a favorite candidate or party, a simple person waits for the fulfillment of the promises made to him. But the scale and depth of India's social problems are so vast that no government can solve them overnight, even if it wants to. Time passes, hopes are replaced by disappointment. There is growing irritation against the "overstayed" in power. The so-called anti-incumbency factor comes into play (this term can be translated as irritation with politicians who are "too late" in power, who are associated with disappointed hopes). Often this factor is enough to make the voter's sympathies swing towards the opponent of the current government in the next election. It is considered that for this reason, the voter refuses to trust 75-80% of politicians and parties that were part of representative bodies of power6.
It would seem that the situation in the country for the United Progressive Alliance after the 14th elections was developing successfully. The economic reforms initiated at the time at the initiative of INC. have picked up pace and caused an unprecedented acceleration in the country's economic growth. As a result, India has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The GDP growth rate, which was 5-6% in the 1980s, rose to 8% in 2003/2004 and reached 9-10% in 2007/2008. Inflation fell to 4.1%. Gold and foreign exchange reserves at the end of March 2008 reached an unprecedented value in the history of independent India - $ 281.2 billion.
Accumulated reserves allowed the state to increase spending on social needs. The state doubled its loans to agriculture and undertook to pay off the peasants ' bank debts. Joined
The program of guaranteed employment in rural areas has been put into effect. Construction of roads, schools, and hospitals has accelerated. Allocations for providing assistance to families living below the poverty line and other socially vulnerable groups of the population have increased.
However, the fruits of economic development were not felt equally by all segments of the population. Business was a clear winner, and the middle class flourished. Wages for specialists and certain categories of workers in the organized industrial sector have increased. To a lesser extent, the economic recovery has affected the small and middle peasantry. A number of regions suffered crop failures and famine. A wave of suicides swept through the villages. According to the National Bureau of Criminal Statistics, 4,453 people took their own lives in Maharashtra in 2006. In terms of suicide rate, Kerala was in the first place (149 cases per 100 thousand population) 7.
Since the spring of 2008, India's economy has been affected by an unprecedented rise in oil prices, and then by the global economic crisis. Exports declined, and production fell in a number of industries. The balance of payments deficit has increased, and the rupee's exchange rate has declined. Inflation has jumped to double digits 8. " Manufacturers are suffering losses and running out of cash. Manufacturing is falling, employment is declining, "the Telegraph newspaper wrote worriedly in November 2008.9 Experts believe that India's GDP growth rate may fall to 5 percent or less per year in 2009. And this is fraught with a deterioration of the socio-political climate in the country10.
The OPA sounded the alarm, fearing that the effects of the economic downturn would reduce its chances of winning the 11 general elections.
In addition to the factor of unfulfilled hopes for the outcome of elections, the so-called "waves" or "tides" of emotions that arise in society under the impression of some high-profile events and produce so-called shifts in the likes or dislikes of voters have an impact. In the past, such waves of sympathy have won the Congress elections both after the assassination of Indira Gandhi and after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. The wave of outrage generated by the 2002 Gujarat events contributed to the defeat of the National Democratic Alliance in 2004.
In 2008, such events include the anti-Christian pogroms in Orissa and, of course, the terrorist attacks in Mumbai on November 26.
Persecution of Christians, as well as Muslims, occurs annually and everywhere. In 2008 They have become particularly widespread in rural areas of Orissa. Only from the beginning of August to mid-October, the Sangha extremists "cleared" 300 villages of the Christian presence; the number of people killed reached 120, wounded-18 thousand, and 50 thousand people lost their homes, another 30 thousand. hiding in the jungle without food or water. For those who want to return to their native villages, the rioters set strict conditions: "Either return as Hindus, or never return." To be convincing, Christians are doused with gasoline and demanded to renounce their faith with a burning lighter 12. Oddly enough, public opinion blames the Sangha Parivar rather than the government for this, accusing it of failing to restore order.
The terrorist attacks in Mumbai produced a tsunami effect - the psychological ground for this was prepared earlier. In just 4 months of 2008 (May to September) and in just 4 major cities - Bangalore, Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Delhi - terrorists detonated 43 bombs and killed 140 people.13
The attack on Mumbai revolutionized public consciousness. An express survey on the streets of Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata (Calcutta), Hyderabad and Bangalore, conducted by the Outlet magazine on December 1-2, showed that people who were most concerned about the economic downturn, inflation, the threat of losing their jobs, etc., after the terrorist attack put problems in the first place in terms of importance personal safety (69%). When asked what they would be guided by if the parliamentary elections were held the next day, 47% mentioned the fight against terrorism and 40% - the economic downturn.
The main criteria for evaluating political parties and their leaders at the time of the survey were their ability to put an end to terrorism. In this respect, according to respondents, the INC loses to the BJP, while Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh lose to BJP leaders L. K. Advani and A. B. Vajpayee. As a result, if the election had been held on December 3, 2008, 36% of the voters would have voted for the BJP, while only 28% of the voters would have voted for the INC. If you remember,
If the gap between BJP and INC votes in the previous three elections did not exceed 4.5%, then the Mumbai Wave (8%) could in principle decide the fate of the elections.14
THE DOWNSIDE OF ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION
Since 2004, other, less high-profile but significant events have taken place in India, which, under certain conditions, can make adjustments in the composition of electoral alliances and the alignment of political forces on the eve and after elections. Among them, first of all, we should mention the explosion of public protest against the policy of economic liberalization. This policy, which has caused an unprecedented rise in the Indian economy, has a downside. It is accompanied by a reduction in import duties, the elimination of state subsidies and subsidies for fertilizers, certain types of raw materials and materials for the "informal" production sector, and the spread of large foreign network shopping centers, which have caused the ruin and unemployment of millions of small farms, artisans and merchants.
Dissatisfaction with the policy of liberalization has already surfaced in the form of protests, rallies, marches, etc. But they were scattered across the country and had a private, disjointed nature: yesterday Kerala fishermen protested against issuing licenses to foreign firms to catch fish off the coast of the state, the day before yesterday - artisans-weavers, dissatisfied with the fall in prices for their products, etc. Since 2006, anti-liberalization movements have increasingly focused on one of the fundamental elements of the reform - special economic zones (SEZs). They are popularly called "Free Exploitative Zones". Labor laws do not apply in the FEZ territories, and strikes are prohibited. Both Indian and foreign capital is readily invested in them. Currently, there are about 500 such zones in India. Some are functioning, others are being completed, and others are in the design stage.
But the creation of FEZs is associated with an acute social problem - the allocation of land. Alienation of land, often carried out in violation of the law, evictions and relocation of its inhabitants from their homes, causes acute conflicts between the people and the authorities. Only in 2008 did such conflicts occur in Maharashtra, Orissa, Jharkhand and other states. The most acute conflict broke out in West Bengal. Ironically, the government of this state is headed by the Communist Party of India (Marxist). The government decided to give 140 thousand acres of land, which is home to 2.5 million people, under the FEZ. The first land for the construction of a subcompact car factory was obtained in 2006 by the Teta group in Singur village. Protests by residents of Singur, dissatisfied with the terms of the purchase of land, were accompanied by clashes with the concern's administration, the authorities and the police. This forced Tatu to abandon his intention.
Events in West Bengal took on the character of a protracted civil war. It covered Nandigram-a block of 38 villages with a population of 440 thousand people. When the residents of Nandigram learned about the transfer of 14,000 acres of their land to a foreign chemical concern and their impending eviction, they organized a resistance committee, which began peace talks with the government. Wanting to destabilize the situation in the state and earn political capital, forces opposed to the government - the Trinamool Congress Party and communists of the radical left-intervened in the conflict. They played the role of instigators of violence.
In early January 2007, police opened fire on protesters in Nandigram and wounded several people. In response, residents demolished the premises of the CPI(M) and government offices, and their functionaries were expelled from the block. For three months, power in Nandigram passed into the hands of the people. On March 14, police and troops launched a military operation to restore order. Officially, 14 civilians were killed during the operation. But eyewitnesses say that there were many more corpses. They were taken out on trucks to places of secret burial. Later, experts of the Central Bureau of Investigation concluded that the shooting at civilians was not caused by necessity .15 From March 16 to November 5, 2007. Nandigram was once again at the mercy of the inhabitants.
On the morning of November 5, up to 3,000 armed CPI(M) activists and mercenaries from Bihar and Jharkhand held a retaliation action against the residents of Nandigram with complete inaction of the police. In terms of cruelty, it surpassed all previous ones. Dozens of residents were killed, 500 were taken hostage, and 10-15 thousand became refugees. Two villages - Sonachura and Gokulnagar - were burned to the ground. For a long time, the rebel block was closed to human rights defenders and journalists. The country did not receive any information.
Police units sent by order of the central government appeared in Nandigram after everything was over. But the conflict didn't go away. It has entered a sluggish phase. In May 2008, the media reported that armed clashes between CPI(M) activists and Nandiram residents had resumed .16
The events in Sengur and Nandigram stirred up public opinion in India, and not only in India. A conference was held in Nagpur in 2007 with the participation of more than a hundred non-governmental organizations. The resolution adopted at the conference condemned the "imperialist" model of development and put forward an alternative model that aims at "the welfare of the people". Several delegations of international human rights organizations visited India. In England, a committee of solidarity with the victims of Nandigram was established, and Between-
The People's League of Popular Struggle, which includes 350 NGOs from 40 countries, decided in February 2008 to launch an international protest campaign against forced evictions in India.
The events in Sengur and Nandigram have resulted in: a consolidation of forces opposed to neoliberal economic policies; an increase in discontent against the Congress as the author and promoter of economic reforms; and a decline in the credibility of the CPI(M) and its importance to the INC as an ally in the upcoming struggle for parliamentary mandates.
IN THE ARMS OF GEORGE W. BUSH
Foreign policy issues became the subject of political pre-election struggle in connection with the signing of the agreement between India and the United States of October 10, 2008 on the development of nuclear energy in India. The deal has a long history. Back in 1963, Delhi and Washington reached an agreement on the construction of two nuclear power plants in India. But since India refused to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the agreement hung in the air. In 1974, after India conducted its first test of a nuclear device in Pokhran, Washington imposed a ban on the supply of nuclear fuel and nuclear technology for peaceful purposes to India. At that time, it seemed that the nuclear deal was a fat cross.
But when the OPA government came to power, negotiations on this issue resumed. In the end, Washington made fundamental concessions to India. The 2008 agreement does not link nuclear cooperation with the need to join the NPT and allows India to continue working on nuclear weapons. The OPA government regards this event as its major victory and expects that it will be appreciated by the voters. But not everyone, even in the ranks of Congress, shares this optimism. Already during the negotiations, the agreement was opposed by the CPI (M) and some Muslim public organizations that support the INC. In the ranks of the "Protestants" was also the BJP, previously unnoticed in its sympathies for Communists and religious minorities.
According to Hindu columnist S. Varadarajan, the main arguments of the deal's opponents are that it will tie India's hands in choosing geopolitical, strategic and scientific priorities, infringe on the country's sovereignty and draw it into the US military and political orbit. "The United States threw its arms around India ... because it recognized Delhi's growing ability to influence the strategic development of Asia and the rest of the world." Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Government Varadarajan, "took Bush's embrace as a sign of favor," but this favor will have to be paid for by supporting Washington's policies. And then: "India should not become a military ally of the United States. Indian diplomacy should maintain a reasonable distance in its relations with the United States. " 17
In August 2008, the CPI (M) officially refused political support to the OPA Government. CPI(M) Secretary General Prakash Karat said that "the honeymoon period in relations with the Congress has come to an end," but added that their " marriage, however, must continue." The INC, just in case, began to search for new allies, and the Communists seriously thought about forming a third electoral alliance-the Left Front.
WHAT "MINI-ELECTIONS" MEAN
State Legislative Assembly elections in India are called mini-elections or dress rehearsals for general elections. Since such elections take place annually, they are used by parties to judge changes in the mood of the electorate. From January 2005 to May 2008, India held elections in 22 states. Their overall results are as follows: INC lost and lost power in 12 states, and the Bharatiya Janata Party won and led governments in 7 states.
They believe that the closer the regional elections are to the general elections, the more we can rely on their results. For this reason, analysts pay special attention to the elections that took place in November-December 2008. At first glance, they turned out to be more successful for the Congress. In terms of the number of winning candidates, INC beat the BJP in 4 states and lost to it in 2 states. But the states where the INC won the upper hand collectively have about half as many parliamentary seats as the states where the BJP won. "The BJP has become the number one party today," Prabhu Chaula said. "Congress has every reason to panic." 18 Many political observers go even further. They do not hesitate to give victory in the 2009 general election to the BJP and its National Democratic Alliance.
But, as it seems to me, we should not rush to conclusions in this regard. There is still a lot of time ahead, and a lot can change.
First, the BJP's "triumphal march" may have the opposite effect-forcing its opponents to close their ranks more closely. It can and certainly will alienate some of the NDA's electorate. For example, the BJP's rise to power in a number of states has seriously alarmed religious minorities, especially Muslims and Christians. They fear that if they win the general election, "Hindutwa will become more audacious and impudent."19 It is worth recalling that 11% of Muslims and 21% of Christians voted for the NDA in the last parliamentary elections.
Second, India-wide and regional elections have their own differences. Alliances of political parties - OPA and NDA-are competing in the parliamentary elections. The regional elections are not run by alliances, but by the INC and the BJP in their "pure form". And this is no coincidence. The INC and the BJP as national parties are well-known everywhere, while their allies in alliances, especially from other states, are not well-known by everyone and do not have a lot of experience.
everywhere. In addition, many regional parties, even those that support the INC or BJP in the parliamentary elections, do not want to share power in their state, but prefer to act independently.
Even in the same state, general and regional elections produce different results. In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which are part of the so-called "cow belt", in general elections, the voter most often preferred the BJP. Therefore, the BJP had no doubts about winning the legislative assembly elections in these states. South India, which includes Karnataka, has always been a "problem" region for the BJP. Here, the election victory was invariably won by the INC and its allies. So the BJP's victory in Madhya Pradesh (November 2008) did not surprise anyone. But the outcome of the Karnataka and Rajasthan elections came as a surprise to both the INC and the BJP. In Karnataka (May 2008), contrary to all expectations, the BJP defeated INC. by a landslide. It brought 110 of its deputies to the Assembly, and only 80 to the Congress. But the results of the Rajasthan elections (December 2008) discouraged her: the Congress had 96 seats, the BJP - 79.
PUNISHED FOR CORRUPTION AND NEPOTISM
It is unreliable to extend the peculiarities of electoral behavior in one state to all others. Thus, after the elections in Rajasthan, some analysts concluded that in the general election, the voter would be guided "not by the interests of caste and community", but by economic and social interests.20 This output looks more than strange. In Karnataka, both the BJP and Congress focused on the communal interests of the Lingayats, the dominant caste group in the state. Of the 81 Lingayats that passed to the Assembly, 45 were nominated by the BJP and 26 by the 21 Congress.
Even those motives of electoral behavior that are considered universal for the whole country manifest themselves differently at the regional level than at the pan-Indian level. In 2008, the irritation of the" overstayed " in power made itself felt in all states. All the parties that were in power at the time of the election were" sitting out": in Tripura, the CPI(M), in Mizoram, the Mizo National Front, and in other states, the INC and BJP, respectively. However, the background of discontent was different everywhere. In the industrialised states, the frustration of "sitting too long" was based on the deterioration of living conditions under the influence of the economic downturn; in the agricultural states, where the impact of the crisis has not yet reached, it was fed by traditional discontent with corruption, nepotism, bureaucracy, etc. 22 In Rajasthan, the anti-incumbency factor manifested itself in a completely unexpected way - it took away votes not only from the party the power of the BJP, but also that of its rival, Inc. Apparently, knowing the value of both parties, voters preferred to vote for independent candidates or representatives of local parties.
Populism, as you know, is used by all parties in both parliamentary and regional elections. The 2008 legislative assembly elections were no exception. The "war of populism" was particularly pronounced in Chhattisgarh. The BJP government, preparing for the elections, reduced the price of rice on cards to 3 rupees, and salt to 25 pais per kilogram (in rupees 100 pais). In response, the Congress promised that when it comes to power, it will sell rice for Rs 2 rupees. At that time, the BJP said that it would lower the price of rice to Rs. 1 and distribute salt for free, etc. The BJP won. Analysts believe that the Congress lost because it blindly followed the BJP's lead both in choosing the subject of promises (the price of rice and salt) and the recipient of promises (in this case, the "poor" and "poorest" segments of the population). He could significantly improve his own affairs by promising, for example, to abandon the creation of special economic zones, which are opposed not only by the poor, but also by the wider masses of the peasant population. 23
There are many other examples of how dangerous it is to base electoral politics on the results of elections at various levels, and even more so on elections in individual states.
* * *
What is the result? By many indicators, the BJP is leading the race today. On its side is the notorious factor of irritation with "incambents", and the emerging deterioration of the economic and social situation in the country. A surge in communal riots and terrorism is also working against the INC and the OPA, although neither the INC nor the OPA have anything to do with them.
The balance of political forces in India has not yet been fully determined. And if you take into account the totality of all factors and circumstances, present and future, then you have to admit that predicting the outcome of a fight is risky.
1 Statistical Report on General Elections 2004 to the 14th Lok Sabha. Vol. I (National and State Abstracts & Detailed Results). P. 1 - 6.
2 Business Standard, November 22, 2008.
3 See for more details: Kutsenkov A. A. Tragediya v Gujarat [The Tragedy in Gujarat]. 2002, N 8. pp. 37-43.
4 The Hindu, June 15, 2008.
5 The Tribune, November 25, 2008.
6 The Times of India, November 30, 2008.
7 Frontline, Vol. 25, is. 24. November 22 -December 5, 2008.
Chandrasekhar C. P. 8 Capital flight // Frontline. Vol. 25...
9 The Telegraph, November 25, 2008.
10 Business Standard, September 29, 2008.
11 The Telegraph, November 25, 2008.
12 India: Orissa - Violence against Christians Continues Unabated. Barnabas, October 15, 2008.
13 India Today, September 18, 2008.
14 Mode Opinion Poll Conducted in Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta, Hyderabad and Bangalore through Street-corner Interviews on December 1 - 2 // Outlook, December 15, 2008.
15 International League of Peoples' Struggle (ILPS), April 4, 2008.
16 The Statesman, November 1, 2008.
Varadarajan Siddharth. 17 Rising Power, Insecure Elite // The Hindu, November 11,2008.
Chawla Prabhu. 18 BJP on the Roll, Congress on the Ropes // India Today, June 9, 2008. P. 23.
Pumima S. Tripathi. 19 Win by Defeat // Frontline, Vol. 25, is. 26. December 20, 2008 - January 2, 2009.
Rajalakshmi T. K. 20 Vote for Change // Frontline. Vol. 25, is. 26...
21 India Today, June 9, 2008. P. 22.
22 The Times of India, November 30, 2008.
Ramakrishnan Venkitesh. 23 Populist Vote // Frontline, Vol. 25, is. 26...
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