Human Settlement on the Moon: Plans, Timelines, and Key Challenges

In 2026, humanity stands on the brink of an event that has been dreamt of for decades — a permanent colony on the Moon. Space powers around the world have moved from talk to concrete plans. The United States has officially approved a budget of 20 billion dollars for the construction of a habitable base. Russia, together with China, is scanning the lunar surface in search of the perfect location for its station. And Elon Musk promises an autonomous city on Earth's satellite in just 10 years. When exactly will humans start living on the Moon, what will their life look like, and what challenges will the first colonists face? We explore these questions in this article.

NASA's Plan: From Temporary Missions to Permanent Presence

In March 2026, new leadership at NASA, led by Jared Isaacman, brought a revolution to the American lunar program. The agency abandoned the idea of an orbital station, Lunar Gateway, and directed all resources to building a base directly on the lunar surface. The strategy is called "return to stay."

According to the official plan, construction will proceed in three stages.

Phase One (2026–2028 years). NASA will organize 21 robotic mission that will deliver approximately 4,000 kilograms of cargo to the Moon. At this stage, technologies for landing and deploying equipment will be tested, and the exact location for the future base will be chosen.

Phase Two (2029–2032 years). 24 landings are planned with the delivery of 60,000 kilograms of cargo. At this stage, the construction of the first semi-habitable modules will begin, allowing astronauts to stay on the surface for extended periods.

Phase Three (from 2033 onwards). The base will become fully inhabited. 28 heavy missions will deliver equipment for permanent residence and regular rotation of crews. By the end of this phase, nuclear and solar energy systems, habitable and cargo rovers, and a communication system similar to a terrestrial mobile network, as well as lunar GPS, should appear on the Moon.

The first astronaut landing is scheduled for 2028 as part of the Artemis IV mission. NASA promises to build the first permanent home for astronauts by 2033.

Russia and China: Joint Station and Site Selection

Russia and China are not planning to fall behind. The project of the International Scientific Lunar Station is actively developing. In April 2026, the head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, confirmed that the Russian Academy of Sciences approved the concept of creating a Russian segment of the station.

In 2026, Russia began developing instruments for studying the internal structure of the Moon. The goal is to scan the satellite to select the optimal area for landing and the placement of the future base.

Interestingly, the project involves not only the two superpowers but also 13 other countries in the world. This creates an alternative center of power in the new lunar race and counters the American project.

Russian scientists are already working on a lunar program until 2036 and are considering extending the planning horizon to 2060. This speaks to the seriousness of their intentions.

The South Pole of the Moon — the Main Construction Site

Both NASA and the Russia-China coalition consider the southern pole of the Moon to be the priority location for the base. Why exactly this seemingly inconvenient region?

Firstly, the craters at the southern pole are in permanent shadow, and it is believed by scientists that there are deposits of water ice in them. Ice is a potential source of drinking water, oxygen, and hydrogen fuel for rockets.

Secondly, some areas of the southern pole are almost constantly illuminated by the Sun, which is ideal for powering solar panels and maintaining a stable temperature in habitable modules.

In 2026, intensive surface mapping began with the use of orbital spacecraft to select the exact location. NASA plans to conduct mass landings of robotic missions in different potential zones before making a final decision.

The Problem of Autonomous Life Support

Elon Musk, the head of SpaceX, stated that his company is capable of building a fully autonomous city on the Moon in the next 10 years, and a Martian settlement may appear in 20 years. However, Russian scientists are skeptical about such timelines.

Russian specialists remind of experiments on creating closed ecosystems. The most extensive was the American Biosphere-2 (1991–1993), where an eight-person crew lived in isolation for about two years on an area of 1.5 hectares. The Chinese project Lunar Palace-365 also proved that it is impossible to fully close the food system: the main part of the protein diet still has to be delivered from outside.

According to calculations, 28 to 50 square meters of growing area are needed to provide one person with plant food and vitamins. These are massive volumes that are not comparable to those available in modern spacecraft and modules.

Moreover, colonists will have to face cosmic radiation, which is 200 times higher on the Moon than on Earth. Musk proposes using natural lava caves for protection. In them, it is indeed possible to place base modules, and the radiation background will be significantly lower than on the surface. But this is only part of the problem.

Russian experts note that an artificial ecological system adapted to local conditions is necessary for survival beyond Earth, and this is a technology that still needs to be created.

Betting on Private Business

The key difference between the new lunar race and the 1960s race is the active participation of private companies. NASA is betting on the CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) program, under which robotic missions are carried out by private contractors.

In 2025, two private landings were made on the Moon, and up to four missions are planned for 2026. NASA expects that by the end of the first phase (2028), the frequency will reach 10 missions per year, and by the mid-2030s — 7–9 heavy missions per year.

SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, and Blue Origin, led by Jeff Bezos, are developing landing modules for delivering astronauts. NASA has announced that it will choose the module that is ready first — time is of the essence, as Americans want to get ahead of the Chinese.

At the same time, NASA announced the development of the nuclear tug Space Reactor-1 Freedom, which will set off for Mars no later than 2028. This is a demonstration of technologies that will later be useful for distant lunar missions.

The Race Against Time: Why 2028 Is a Turning Point

The head of NASA, Jared Isaacman, does not hide that time is running out. Success or failure will be measured in months, not years.

China plans to land its astronauts by 2030. If the Americans delay the landing from 2028 to a later date, they may lose the lead. Therefore, NASA has revised its plans and abandoned the intermediate orbital station Lunar Gateway, which would have been an intermediate link but would have delayed timelines.

In the coming years, we will see a peak of activity: testing of landing modules, launching of dozens of robotic missions, and finally, the return of humans to the lunar surface for the first time in more than 50 years since Apollo 17. By the mid-2030s, the first permanently inhabited human outpost may appear on the Moon.

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