INDIA-RUSSIA ECONOMIC COOPERATION: MAIN PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

N. V. GALISHCHEVA

Doctor of Economics

MGIMO (U) of the Russian Foreign Ministry

Keywords: Indian economy, foreign economic policy of India, Indian-Russian trade and economic cooperation

If you ask any Indian who is the best friend of India, every adult citizen, every child will say that this is Russia. It was Russia that stood shoulder to shoulder with India without any conditions during all the difficult times.

Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi ¹.

In December 1991, the Republic of India was one of the first countries in the world to recognize the Russian Federation as a "successor" state of the USSR, with which it had diplomatic relations since April 13, 1947.

Prior to 1991, the two countries enjoyed close trade and economic relations for several decades. After India gained independence, the Soviet Union provided significant financial and technical assistance to India, assisting in the construction of large industrial enterprises, including metallurgical plants in Bhilai, Bokaro, etc., and, in addition, supplied military equipment. India was an important economic partner for the USSR, which, on the one hand, was seen as an exporter of clothing, textiles, tea and other consumer goods, and on the other - as a kind of tool for spreading Soviet influence in the South Asian region.

The intensification of India's trade relations with the USSR in the 1960s and 1980s led to a significant increase in mutual trade turnover. So, if in the 1960/1961 fiscal year (hereinafter-FY)* the share of our country in the total volume of Indian imports was 1.5% (160 million rupees), and by the end of the decade it increased to 6.5%, while in the 1980s the USSR took the 2nd place in Indian imports, second only to the United States (in 1980/1981-8.1% and 12.9%,respectively). accordingly). The peak of Indian-Soviet trade cooperation occurred in 1984/1985, when the share of the Soviet Union in Indian imports among other states was the highest, amounting to 10.4%. The same could be said for Indian exports to the USSR: in FY 1960/1961, its share was 4.5% of total Indian exports, in FY 1980/1981-18.3%, and in FY 1985/1986-18.4% ² (see Table 1).

SHOPPING "SWINGS"

Meanwhile, since the second half of the 1980s, a downward trend has been observed in Indian-Soviet trade and economic relations. Moreover, due to the collapse of the USSR, the crisis in the post-Soviet space, as well as the monetary and financial crisis in India in 1991/1992 and the launch of large-scale liberal reforms there, the share of the Russian Federation in Indian imports and exports by 1994/1995 decreased to 1.8% and 3.1%, respectively (see ^fig. table 1).

From the late 1980s to 1993, the foreign trade turnover between the two countries decreased from $10 billion. up to just over $1 billion. The main reasons include refusal

* In India, the fiscal year begins on April 1 and ends on March 31 of the following calendar year.

Table 1

The share of the USA and the USSR (later - Russia) in Indian exports and imports in 1980/1981 FY - 1994/1995 FY (%)

Compiled by the author from: Economic Survey 1995/96 / Government of India. Ministry of Finance. Department of Economic Affairs. Economic Division. P. S-88, S-89.

from the previously existing system based on the annual approval by both parties of the list of goods to be delivered and clearing settlements based on the foreign currency ruble; the economic crisis in Russia in the early 1990s; the weakness of large and medium-sized private businesses in Russia at that time, which was reflected in the lack of sufficient activity in stimulating bilateral cooperation in the 1990s gg, both from the Russian and Indian business circles.

The main vectors of interaction in relations between the two states were outlined only with the signing of the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of India on January 28, 1993. At the same time, the issue of Indian debt to Russia, accumulated during the existence of the USSR, was resolved. However, since the mid-1990s, the volume of trade between India and Russia began to gradually grow again and by the end of the decade exceeded $1.5 billion. It is noteworthy that the sharp decline in India's trade relations with the USSR (and later with Russia) occurred against the background of a steady increase in Indian trade turnover with the United States.

The volume of Russian-Indian trade was negatively affected by the default in Russia in 1998, as well as economic sanctions against India imposed by the United States and a number of Western countries after the tests of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan in May 1998.4 Thus, according to Indian customs statistics, bilateral trade (excluding the supply of military equipment and weapons, as well as unorganized, or "shuttle" trade) decreased from $1,571. 02 million in FY 1999/2000 to $1,296. 61 million in FY 2002/2003.

After signing in October 2000. In the Declaration on Strategic Partnership between the two countries, multifaceted cooperation has intensified. It is noteworthy that Russia was the first country with which India signed such a document. Thanks to the state - level policy of deepening strategic partnership, the volume of trade between the two countries has gradually increased in recent years to $6.5 billion in FY2012 / 2013 ($6.1 billion). - in fy2013/2014) ⁵ (see Table 2). During this period, there was a noticeable increase in both Indian exports and imports.

At the same time, the share of Russia in India's foreign trade turnover, according to the Indian Customs statistics, decreased in the period from 2001 to 2013.-

Table 2

India-Russia mutual trade in FY 2007/2008-FY 2013/2014

Calculated and compiled by the author from: Economic Survey 2009/10. Government of India. Ministry of Finance. Department of Economic Affairs. Economic Division. February 2010. P. A94, A99; Economic Survey 2010/11... February 2011. P. A94, A99; Economic Survey 2012/13... February 2013. P. A96, A101; Economic Survey 2013/14... February 2014. P. 84, 90.

It increased from 1.45% to 1%. In imports, it decreased from 1.9% to 0.9%, and in exports - from 1.97% to 1%, respectively ^.6

India's trade balance with Russia was traditionally positive until fy2/2003, but became negative in subsequent years - according to the results of fy3/2014 - about $1 billion ⁷. Since India has signed strategic partnership agreements with a number of other countries over the past decade, the 11th Russian-Indian Summit in 2010 announced the creation of a "special privileged strategic partnership", which emphasized the priority of developing close economic and other ties between the two countries.

WHAT DO WE BUY AND SELL?

A number of structures have been created to coordinate the implementation of agreements in the economic field and promote cooperation between India and Russia, including the Russian-Indian Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical and cultural cooperation, the Russian-Indian Intergovernmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation, etc. Although the legal framework of Russian-Indian relations was radically updated after 1991 in order to create a more favorable trade, economic and investment regime, the results of cooperation between the two countries in the economic sphere do not yet fully correspond to the existing potential.

According to the data of the Russian Federal Customs Service for January-July 2014, the trade turnover between the two countries reached $4.8 billion, and India's share in Russia's trade turnover was about 1 %⁸ (see Table 3). At the same time, Russian statistics also take into account the supply of military equipment and weapons, which significantly increases bilateral trade turnover.

India mainly imports mineral fertilizers, non-ferrous and ferrous metals, newsprint, chemical products, etc. from Russia. At the same time, until the early 2000s, the share of raw materials traditionally accounted for more than 80% of imports, while machinery, equipment and vehicles (aircraft, metal-cutting machines, electrical equipment, etc.) accounted for less than 9%. In recent years, according to Russian statistics, due to the supply of military equipment, the share of aircraft in Indian imports from Russia has significantly increased, amounting to 25.5% ⁹ in January-October 2013 (see Table 4).

In the value of Indian exports to Russia in January-October 2013 (total $2.6 billion), the share of pharmaceutical products amounted to 25.5%, machinery and equipment, vehicles and tools-17.1%, agricultural and food products -10.6% (including tea, coffee and spices-4.2%), tobacco -3.7%., ready-made clothing - 4.7%, knitwear - 3.7%¹⁰ (see Table 5).

In recent years, the share of high-tech products in the mutual Indian-Russian trade turnover has been small. Trade still has a predominantly raw material profile and continues to be based on a narrow range of goods that are quite sensitive to market conditions.

In general, the business communities of both India and Russia are not active enough in promoting their products and services to each other's markets. The then Indian Ambassador to Russia, K. Sibal, noted in 2012:: "Russia is gradually losing the Indian market" ¹¹. Meanwhile, at the same time, the parties set a goal to increase the volume of bilateral trade to $15 billion by 2015, which remained unrealized. G. Das, an expert of the Political Research Foundation, believed at the time that it was impossible to achieve this without significantly expanding the range of economic cooperation only at the expense of traditional industries.¹²

Table 3

Trade turnover between Russia and India in 2007-2014 (January-July) ($billion)

Compiled by the author according to the Federal Customs Service - http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/in/ in_ru_relations/in_ru_trade/

Table 4

Main products of Indian imports from Russia in January-October 2013

* HS code-classifier of the commodity nomenclature of foreign economic activity - a classifier of goods used by customs authorities and participants in foreign economic activity (FEA) for the purpose of conducting customs operations.

Compiled by the author according to the Federal Customs Service - http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/ in/in_ru_relations/in_ru_trade/

Following the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India in December 2014, the parties set a goal to increase the volume of bilateral trade in goods and services to $30 billion by 2025. and we agreed to actively use national currencies in mutual settlements ¹³. Many analysts agree that the transition to mutual settlements in bilateral trade in national currencies-rubles and rupees-will also have a positive impact on the Indian-Russian trade turnover.

The Indian side is considering the possibility of concluding an agreement between India and the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on the establishment of a trade union.

Table 5

Main products of Indian exports to Russia in January-October 2013

Compiled by the author according to the Federal Customs Service - http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/ in/in_ru_relations/in_ru_trade/

free trade. In this regard, the current Indian Ambassador to Russia, P. S. Raghavan, noted that India's closer rapprochement with the EAEU will be mutually beneficial and will further accelerate our bilateral economic cooperation.¹⁴

SETTLEMENT OF INDIAN DEBT

In 1993, the Indian debt to Russia was determined by the governments of the two countries in the amount of 320 billion rubles ($10.2 billion). It is based on government loans granted to India before 1990. According to the results of fy2013/2014, the amount of Indian debt to Russia, including payments made in 1993-March 2014, was about $1.3 billion.

Payments to repay government and commercial loans have always been made by India in full and on time. At the same time, government loan debts are repaid three times a year (April - 30%; June-July - 60%; October-November - 10%) by transferring funds to Vnesheconombank's centralized account with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Commercial loans are received twice a year - in April and October-by depositing funds to special savings accounts of Russian organizations in Indian commercial banks. The amount of annual payments received from India to repay government loans is 28 billion rubles (about $780 million) and for commercial loans - 3 billion rubles (about $80 million). Payments on the debt (including interest) will be completed only in 2037.

The Russian side can use the funds received to repay the Indian debt in the following areas:: for the centralized purchase of a number of goods (tea, coffee, soybeans, pharmaceutical products, etc.), for the allocation of rupee quotas to Russian ministries and departments, taking into account their specific justified requests (for the purchase of goods and services in India), for the sale of rupee funds through a system of currency auctions, and for financing projects of bilateral technical and economic cooperation on the territory of India or Russia.

In the 1990s-2000s, the sale of debt rupees through auctions became predominant. There are prerequisites for the activation of other areas, for example, centralized purchases of a number of goods in India. This is due to the fact that, in accordance with the export-import policy of India for 2002 - 2007, trade in agricultural products with Russia has significantly simplified.

In particular, the requirements for packaging certain types of agricultural products (peanut butter, cereals, cashew nuts, etc.) exported to Russia to pay off the Indian state debt have been lifted. In this regard, one of the ways to strengthen Russia's position in the Indian economy and increase mutual trade turnover could be to implement scientific and technical projects at the expense of the remaining amount of India's debt, transforming it into investments.

Another option to pay off part of the debt (which was done in practice) was the creation of joint ventures (JVs) in India, mainly in the knowledge-intensive, high-tech industries, as well as in the energy and ferrous metallurgy sectors. Two joint ventures were created, in which the Russian side invested about $800 million.

However, as the experience of organizing joint ventures has shown, the task was not easy. For example, in 2010, Vnesheconombank and Technohimholding signed an intergovernmental agreement to create a joint venture with Saraf Agencies Private Ltd., an Indian company that is a high-tech integrated chemical and metallurgical complex for the production of titanium dioxide and other titanium products.¹⁵

Meanwhile, due to disagreements for several years between the project participants regarding the transfer of ownership of a plot of land under the plant being created in Chhatrapur (Odisha), owned by the Indian company Saraf Agencies Private Ltd., in June 2013, the state judicial authorities allowed the Indian company to implement the project only independently, that is, without participation of Russian partners.

The second project was promoted within the joint venture Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd^,'s Shyam Group16. The project's goal was to create an all-India mobile operator under the MTS India brand. However, in February 2012, the Supreme Court of India revoked 21 of the 22 licenses issued to Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd due to violations of Indian law when issuing licenses. The court considered that the licenses were not distributed transparently, as a result of which the state did not receive significant funds.

Until the new auction, which took place in March 2013, operators were allowed to continue working. Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd, a Russian-Indian joint venture, was the sole participant of the 2013 auction and, consequently, its winner. Meanwhile, the joint venture refused to work in 13 districts due to unprofitability. In the remaining 8 environments-

Table 6

Indian capital in the Russian economy ($ mln)

Источник: http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/in/in_ru_relations/ in_ru_trade/; http://www.rustrade.in/rus_downloads/Economy_Review/ 2011 - 06 - 01_9Investment.pdf

The total cost of JV frequencies used was $368 million. In addition, the joint venture and the Ministry of Communications of India have not yet resolved a conflict: the Ministry has expressed a desire to seek a fine of about $407 million from Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd. for its work in 13 districts during the suspension of licenses in February 2012-March 2013. Representatives of the joint venture hope for an early settlement of the dispute, explaining their refusal to pay the fine by the fact that the Supreme Court of India allowed the company to operate in all districts even before the auction ¹⁷.

INVESTMENT COOPERATION

Investment cooperation between India and Russia at the present stage, as in the 1990s and early 2000s, is characterized by a significantly greater activity of Indian investors compared to our investors. As of January 1, 2014, the accumulated volume of Indian investments in the Russian economy amounted to $3.1 billion. (of these, $1.7 billion). - to the Sakhalin-1 project)¹⁸. At the same time, the volume of annual investment inflows in recent years has been stable at $400-500 million, increasing, according to the results of 2013, to $610 million. (see Table 6).

More than 200 companies with Indian capital are registered in the Russian Federation, operating mainly in the field of trade and services, as well as in the production of food, medicines and light industry. India's Minister of Trade and Industry, N. Sitharaman, said in November 2014 that Indian investors have recently become more interested in the Russian market19.

Taking into account that the Indian economy's annual oil demand may increase from the current 700 million tons to 1.5 billion tons by 2035, the government encourages Indian companies to participate in the exploration and development of new fields abroad, including in Russia. At the same time, the Indian state-owned companies Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited - ONGC (and its subsidiary ONGC Videsh Ltd.), Indian Oil Corporation, GAIL (India) Limited have been increasing funding for large international projects for the extraction of hydrocarbon raw materials in a number of states20 since 2002. These include mainly countries that have significant natural resources, but do not have free funds for their full-scale development. However, Russia is also among them.

The largest investment project implemented with the participation of Indian capital in the Russian economy is Sakhalin-1, where ONGC invested $1.7 billion in 200221. Indian companies plan to participate in the development and operation of hydrocarbon sources in the Pechora basin. With the purchase in January 2009 of the British Imperial Energy Corporation Plc. India's Jarpeno Limited (a subsidiary of ONGC Videsh Ltd.) has acquired oil and gas assets in the Tomsk Region.

Currently, Imperial Energy Corporation Plc. It includes a number of independent companies operating in this region, including two oil and gas production companies - Nord Imperial LLC and Alliansneftegaz LLC, as well as service companies - Rus Imperial Group LLC and Imperial Frak Service LLC.

In February 2013, Rosneft offered India's ONGC joint development of the Magadan-2 and Magadan-3 oil fields in the Sea of Okhotsk. In 2014, contacts between the energy companies of the two countries noticeably intensified. In particular, it was decided to expand cooperation between Rosneft and ONGC in the oil sector and increase the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to India with the participation of Rosneft and Gazprom. The first shipments of LNG with an annual volume of about 2.5 million tons ^{may arrive in India as early as 201722}

In addition, during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India in December 2014, Rosneft and India's Essar Group signed a long-term agreement to supply India with 10 million tons of oil per year. The contract will be concluded for 10 years with the possibility of its extension, and

the approximate amount of the transaction is estimated at $5 billion. per year. At the same time, deliveries are planned to start in 2015.

According to analysts, we are talking about the organization of a so - called energy bridge between Russia and India with the participation of a third party (for example, China), which will receive Russian oil, and supply its own - in the same volume-to India. This will reduce the transport leverage and, thus, additional costs, which, according to preliminary estimates, will amount to $1-2 per barrel. According to experts, if the deal is concluded, Rosneft's supplies will cover about 5% of India's oil needs (200 thousand of the required 3.5 million barrels). per day)²³.

Indians attribute the growing activity of the Russian side in attracting foreign partners to the development of Russia's hydrocarbon resources to the introduction of sanctions against it in 2014 by a number of Western countries and the desire in this regard to diversify cooperation with Asian partners, primarily with India and China.

Among the Russian-Indian joint ventures, there are Cumi International Limited for the production of abrasives in Volzhsk, Volgograd region, and Aurospharma Company for the production of medicines in the Podolsk district of the Moscow region-mainly generic drugs that do not contain penicillin and cephalosporin. JV Aurospharma Company was created on a parity basis by the Russian company Diod OJSC and the Indian Aurobindo Pharma Limited with the aim of producing socially significant medicines and selling them in the markets of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. ²⁴ This allows Russia to save significant budget funds by eliminating the purchase of expensive original drugs and purchasing cheaper generics.

Having been able to localize its production in Russia and using the marketing experience of a Russian partner, the Indian company has successfully entered the Russian market and plans to sell products worth about $1.9 billion here. per year ²⁵. India's Tata Global Beverages Limited is also successfully operating in the Russian market. After buying the Grand trading house's stake in SuntyCo Holdings²⁶ in 2012, it began to control 4-5% of the Russian tea and coffee market.

(The ending follows)

¹ http://thehindu.com/news/nationaI/vladimir-putin-turns-to-india-with-energy-defence-offers/a rticle6682253.ece

² Economic Survey 1995/96 / Government of India. Ministry of Finance. Department of Economic Affairs. Economic Division. P. S-88, S-89.

³ Ibidem.

⁴ http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/13/india.us/; http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2001_10/sanctionsoct01

⁵ Economic Survey 2013/14 / Government of India... February 2014. P. 84, 90.

⁶ Calculated by the author from: Economic Survey 2009/10 / Government of India... February 2010. P. A94, A99; Economic Survey 2013/14. Government of India... February 2014. P. 84, 90.

⁷ Ibidem.

⁸ http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/in/in_ru_relations/in _ru_trade/

⁹ Ibid.

¹⁰ Ibid.

¹¹ http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/russia/2012/02/120224_india_ russiaputin.shtml

¹² http://izvestia.ru/news/572564

¹³ http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Text-of-India-Russia-joint-statement/articleshow/454 74559.cms

¹⁴ http://in.rbth.com/economics/2014/08/15/putin_modi_to_ spell_out_new_vision_in_cooperation_-_ps_raghavan_37567.html; http://www.newsru.com/finance/12mar2010/hindiputin.html; http://www.newsru.com/world/24oct2012/india.html

¹⁵ The complex was established in the free economic zone (FEZ) in the Indian state of Odisha (until November 4, 2011 - Orissa) and is capable of producing annually, including for the needs of Russian consumers, 40 thousand tons of titanium dioxide, 132 thousand tons of titanium tetrachloride, as well as 10 thousand tons of titanium sponge and 108 thousand tons titanium slag -http://www.rusembassy.in/index.php?option=com_content&view-artic le&id-96&Itemid=107〈=en; http://www.veb.ru/press/news / arch_news/index. php?idl9=2584&from_19=120; http://www.busi-ness-standard.com/article/companies/saraf-agencies-clears-legal-hurdle-for-ti tanium-project-113062500677_l.html; http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/saraf-agencies-revises-production-timeli ne-for-rs-2 - 000-cr-titanium-plant-114061000885_l.html; http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/saraf-agencies-keen-to-set-up-ganjam-tit anium-project-112051900031_1.html

¹⁶ The joint venture started operating in 2000. - http://www.kom-mersant.ru/doc-y/1883023

¹⁷ http://www.vedomosti.ru/tech/news/29145751/shtraf-za-lishnyuyu-rabotu

^{18 http://www.rustrade.in/rus_downloads/Economy} Review/ 2011 - 06 - 01_9Investment.pdf

¹⁹ http://thebricspost.com/russian-indian-officials-prepare-for-putin-visit/#.VGxzwzkVRiw; http://in.rbth.com/economics/2013/01 / 31/falling_oil_output_makes_imperial_energy_a_liabilityforongcin _ru_22001.html

²⁰ http://www.iocl.com/; http://www.ongcvidesh.com/default. aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=l; GAIL (India) Limited (прежнее название - Gas Authority of India Limited) http://www.gail.nic.in/final_site/index.html

²¹ The project involves: Indian ONGC Videsh Ltd. - 20%, American Exxon Mobil Corporation-30%, Japanese Sakhalin Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd. - 30%, ЗАО "Сахалинморнефтегаз-Шельф" - 11,5%, ЗАО "PH-АСТРА" - 8,5% (обе - дочки ОАО "Роснефть") -http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Imperial-Energy-Shareholders-Accept-ONGC-Videsh-Offer/e945 3714.aspx#gsc.tab-0; http://london-gazette.vlex.co.uk/vid/jarpeno-wholly-owned-subsidiary-ongc-videsh-52500010 ; http://listofcompanies.co.in/imperial-energy-corporation-plc/; http://www.oilvoice.eom/n/Imperial_Energy_Provides_ Tomsk_Pipeline_Update/a30f5792.aspx#gsc.tab=0; http://www.imperialenergy.com/ru/; http://in.rbth.com/economics/ 20 1 3/02/12/ongcs_magadan_foraycouldbe_a_win-win_situation_22227.html; http://in.rbth.com/news/2014/05/15/ rosneft_ongc_heads_meet_to_discuss_further_cooperation_35249.html

²² http://www.newsru.eom/world/11dec2014/india/html

^{23 http://www/rbcdaily/ru/industry/562949993296836}

²⁴ The Joint venture's products are aimed at the markets of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Production - about 3 billion tablets and 180 million capsules per year. The investment volume is estimated at 900 million rubles. -http://www.diod.ru/pages/press_rel_07_09_11; http://www.finam.ru/ analysis/newsitem5E330/default.asp

²⁵ Ibid.

²⁶ Tata Global Beverages Limited, owns 65% of the joint venture, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development-35% - http://www.biz-nesbroker.ru/publications/news/detail1352/; http://www.food-newsweek.ru/tea/tata-poluchila-grand.html

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