N. V. GALISHCHEVA, Doctor of Economics

MGIMO (U) of the Russian Foreign Ministry

Keywords: Indian economy, foreign economic policy of India, "Looking to the East"

India's Look East Policy, which has been implemented since the early 1990s, is aimed at strengthening trade and economic ties with the regions of Eastern, especially South-Eastern, Asia and expanding its zone of influence in the Asian region as a whole.

Successful economic reforms have allowed India to strengthen its capacity and become closer to the ASEAN member States: in 1992, India was granted the status of a sectoral dialogue partner, and in December 1995, it became a full dialogue partner.

INCREMENTALLY

Since 2002, the ASEAN-India Summits have been held on a regular basis (on average once a year) ^.1 Thus, in October 2003, during the second ASEAN-India summit in Bali, Indonesia, India and the Association signed a Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation, which laid the foundation for the formation of the ASEAN - India regional Trade and Investment Zone between the parties, as well as for the foreseeable future - a free trade zone, meaning free trade movement of goods, services, and capital.

Efforts by both sides in this direction led to the establishment of a free trade zone between India and the ASEAN countries from 1 January 2010, which provides, among other things, for a gradual reduction in tariff rates for 90% of goods traded between the parties.² In accordance with the Free Trade Area Agreement, tariffs for 4 thousand product lines will be completely abolished by 2016. In addition, a similar agreement on services and capital is being prepared between the Association and India. If in 1993, at the dawn of the intensification of cooperation with ASEAN, India's trade turnover with this regional bloc was $2.9 billion, then in 2003 - it increased to $12.1 bn3. In 2005-2010, the annual trade turnover between India and the ASEAN countries increased on average by more than 25% and, according to the results of 2010, reached $55.4 billion, which brought India to the 7th position among the main trade partners of the Association (India accounts for 2.7% of the total trade turnover of this integration group).⁴. In FY2013 / 14, the volume of trade between India and the ASEAN countries increased to $74.7 billion (see Table 1).

The five largest ASEAN trading partners of India traditionally include Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam (see Table 2). However, only with Singapore and Vietnam has India's trade balance been consistently positive over the past decade.

Investment cooperation is also actively developing: hedgehog-

Table 1

India-ASEAN mutual trade in fy2007/08-fy2013/14

Calculated and compiled by the author from: Economic Survey 2009/10 / Government of India. Ministry of Finance. Department of Economic Affairs. Economic Division. February 2010. P. A93, A98; Economic Survey 2010/11... February 2011. P. A93, A98; Economic Survey 2012/13... February 2013. P. A95, A100; Economic Survey 2013/14... February 2014. P. 83, 89.

Ending. For the beginning, see: Asia and Africa today. 2014, N 10.

Table 2

India's trade with leading ASEAN Partners in FY2013 / 14 (estimated) ($ bn)

Source: Economic Survey 2013/14. Government of India. Ministry of Finance. Department of Economic Affairs. Economic Division. February 2014. P. 83, 89.

the annual volume of Indian direct investment in ASEAN countries is steadily increasing - if in 2008 it was $476.8 million, in 2009 - $811.18 million, and in 2010 - $2.58 billion. Subsequently, as a result of the global financial and economic crisis, the volume decreased slightly and in 2011 and 2012 amounted to $2.23 billion, and in 2013 - $1.32 billion. Meanwhile, despite a certain decline in the volume of investments, India confidently retains the status of the 6th-7th largest investor in ASEAN ⁵.

It is noteworthy that India is not limited only to trade and investment relations with these countries, but also increases cooperation in other areas. Thus, a number of projects in the fields of basic science and technology, space and information and communication technologies, aviation and tourism are currently being implemented under the auspices of the ASEAN-India Foundation for the Development of Science and Technology6. So, if in 2008 the ASEAN countries were visited by less than 2 million Indian tourists, in 2009 - 2.1 million, in 2010 - 2.47 million, in 2011 - 2.71 million, and in 2012 - 2.8 million. Ties in agriculture and forestry are also being strengthened. The parties intend to jointly solve problems of food security, exchange knowledge and best practices, and implement joint scientific projects in relevant areas.

The work of joint funds has become one of the most important components of the mechanism of interaction between India and the ASEAN countries. At the present stage, the activities of the ASEAN-India Climate Change Foundation and the ASEAN-India Cooperation Foundation are highlighted.⁷

India is currently strengthening its economic ties with ASEAN, including through the provision of aid. At the 4th ASEAN-India Summit in Kuala Lumpur in 2005, it was announced the opening of special courses to improve the skills of diplomats of the participating countries, as well as plans to build Entrepreneurship Development Centers in Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar that support the development of small and medium-sized businesses, organize English language studies and others. disciplines, including through distance learning, etc. During the 8th ASEAN-India Summit in Vietnam in October 2010, such a center was opened in Hanoi.

The ASEAN-India Action Plan, adopted at the 3rd ASEAN-India Summit in Vientiane in 2004 and originally designed for the period 2004-2010, is being successfully implemented. At the 9th ASEAN-India Summit in Bali (Indonesia) in November 2011, the Action Plan, which now includes 82 areas of cooperation (in addition to trade, economic and investment cooperation, combating various economic crimes, maritime piracy, international terrorism, etc.), was extended for the period 2010-2015. ⁸

India provides financial assistance to Southeast Asian countries. It began in the 1950s, first in Burma (since October 2010 - the Republic of the Union of Myanmar), and then in other countries of the region. Indonesia's first loan was granted in 1965, and by 1969 the island nation had already received 200 million rupees from India.⁹ In general, in the 1960s-1970s. Indonesia and Malaysia have repeatedly received loans from India for the purchase of Indian equipment. During this period and in subsequent decades, India also provided technical assistance to Southeast Asian countries, financing infrastructure projects. In particular, India participated in the construction of a number of enterprises in Malaysia (about 30 projects in total), Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos and Vietnam. In addition, it also provides educational and advisory services, etc. In the 1950s and 1970s, 356 specialists from Malaysia, 270 from the Philippines, and 100 from Indonesia were trained in India.¹⁰

By providing assistance to Southeast Asian countries, India provides markets for its products, as well as favorable conditions for Indian companies to enter the Southeast Asian region, which ultimately stimulates the growth of bilateral trade. The Southeast Asian countries are strategically important for India, because, among other things, they have a rich resource base and significant scientific and technical potential.

India seeks to strengthen its presence in Southeast Asia by providing assistance to the countries of the region in developing their transport infrastructure, social sphere, etc. One of the" platforms " for cooperation was the Mekong and Gangetic River Basin Cooperation Organization11.

Table 3

India-China mutual trade in FY 2007/08-FY 2013/14

Calculated and compiled by the author from: Economic Survey 2009/10. Government of India. Ministry of Finance. Department of Economic Affairs. Economic Division. February 2010. P. A94, A99; Economic Survey 2010/11... February 2011. P. A94, A99; Economic Survey 2012/13... February 2013. P. A96, A101.

THE CHINESE ASPECT

India's policy of providing assistance to Southeast Asian countries is clearly aimed not only at consolidating its economic position in this region, but also, in a certain sense, at spreading its geopolitical influence over it. This idea is also supported by an American indologist, Professor at the University of Pennsylvania Francine Frankel, who noted that the Indian government's policy of "Looking East", aimed at actively developing bilateral ties with countries that have strained relations with China, indicates a new round of Indian-Chinese rivalry in Asia ¹². The strengthening of China's position in the Southeast Asian region was the result of the implementation of its policy, known as"good-neighbor diplomacy". According to Chinese researcher Ki Huaigao, this diplomacy is the most important component of China's foreign economic policy, which includes various formats, including the Chiang Mai Initiative ¹³, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone, and others. ¹⁴ China's policy of strengthening its status as a leading power in the Southeast Asian region also includes, among other things, the allocation of aid, the cumulative contribution to the development of the volume of which in the first five years of the XXI century amounted to about $3 billion ¹⁵.

One cannot but agree with the thesis of Francine R. Frankel, who analyzes the Indian-Chinese rivalry in Southeast Asia. She believes that "partially overlapping claims for influence in South and Southeast Asia, as well as in the Indian Ocean, which are not openly expressed in either China or India, have resulted in serious strategic rivalry. Obviously, since India is weaker and less dangerous (from the point of view of getting into economic and other dependence in the future. Of these two Asian giants, smaller countries in the region, concerned about China's rapid rise, are willing to consider it as a partner. " ¹⁶

How can I not remember two well-known statements? One of them belongs to the statesman and politician of India Sardar K. M. Panikkar: "The future of India will undoubtedly be decided at sea. It is inextricably linked to success in the Indian Ocean region. " ¹⁷ The author of the second statement is Alfred T. Smith. Mahan: "Whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia. This ocean is the key to the seven seas. In the twenty-first century, the fate of the world will be decided in its waters. " ¹⁸

Thus, cooperation with the ASEAN countries in the XXI century. It is becoming one of the key directions of India's foreign economic policy.

ELEPHANT AND DRAGON COOPERATION AND COMPETITION

China has become an increasingly important area of India's foreign economic policy over the past decade. Bilateral trade is developing at an accelerated pace between the two countries. If in 1994 the mutual Indian-Chinese trade turnover barely reached $100 million, then in 2000 - $2.91 billion, in 2005 - $18.71 billion, and in 2012 - $75.5 billion.¹⁹ In recent years, India has consistently ranked among the top ten trading partners of China, while China is among the top three trading partners of India, which accounted for about 9% of India's trade turnover in FY2012 / ¹³²⁰.

India mainly exports to China products of the extractive industry (iron ore, aluminum, etc.), as well as rolled steel, and imports consumer goods (mobile phones, computers, etc.), equipment for the textile industry, coal, etc.

The opening in July 2006 of a cross-border trade line in Natu-La (a pass in the Himalayas 4545 m above sea level) between the Indian state of Sikkim and the Tibet Autonomous Region of China became a kind of symbol of a departure from the established stereotypes of the past. The normalization of the trade route occurred 44 years after the end of the Sino-Indian border war of 1962. It is noteworthy that both sides in this case postponed the resolution of territorial disputes for the future and began to normalize relations with the development of trade ties in this area of the Himalayas.

In addition to trade cooperation, there is also investment cooperation between the two countries, which, however, is developing rather poorly, which is primarily due to the mutual unwillingness of the parties to allow large-scale investment projects.

enter a competitor's home market. In addition, some concerns among Indians are caused by the problem of copyright compliance by some Chinese companies. Nevertheless, by the middle of the first decade of the 21st century, more than 150 Indian companies were involved in more than 2,000 investment projects in China (the total investment volume is about $80 million). At the same time, about 50 Chinese firms operated in India, whose investment volume in 1991-2004 amounted to $231.7 million, or 0.3% of the total volume of foreign investment received in India during ^the specified period21. The total volume of Chinese direct investment in the Indian economy in 2000-2012 was $135m22.

Thus, India is successfully developing trade and economic ties with the PRC, despite the presence of a number of irritants in bilateral relations - unresolved territorial problems (Aksai Chin district, the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, etc.), strategic partnership between the PRC and Pakistan.

Scientific and technical cooperation between India and China is insignificant, although attempts are being made to develop it, in particular, within the framework of the Sino-Indian Business Alliance. In 2006, 25 Chinese companies announced their intention to cooperate with Indian partners and set up a special research and development economic zone ²³. The Alliance also promotes the creation of joint biotech incubators, technology parks, etc.

The fast-growing economies of India and China have certain similarities. In particular, they face resource constraints and are forced to look for additional sources of raw materials abroad, which makes them competitors in the commodity markets in Africa and other regions. As Indian Energy Minister Mani Shankar Ayyar once quipped, " At every crossroads in any foreign country, we are bound to run into our Chinese competitors."²⁴. This is not surprising: the World Bank estimates that in the middle of the first decade of the ^twenty-first century, only four African countries (South Africa, Tanzania, Ghana, and Senegal) employed 450 Chinese and Indian companies25.

In the face of fierce competition for resources, there are even examples of coordination of Indian-Chinese cooperation in the oil and gas sector on the territory of other states. In particular, in Khartoum (Sudan) The construction of the refinery is being carried out by Chinese investors, while the pipelines for delivering refined oil to the nearest port for export are being built by Indian investors.

In the context of the ongoing struggle of extra-regional powers, primarily the United States and its allies, for influence in the Indian Ocean and in Asia as a whole, India and China, despite their economic and geopolitical rivalry in the South Asian region, will have to jointly solve many problems both at the bilateral level and in international organizations, in particular within the framework of BRICS, which has been noticeably gaining credibility and political weight in the world in recent years.

China may also have to contend with India's growing economic and military power: April 19, 2012 India successfully tested the Agni-5 solid-fuel ballistic missile with a range of 5 thousand km, which actually turned it into the 6th (after the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain and France) world power with missiles of this range.²⁶

* * *

Over the past two decades, India has been quite successful in implementing liberal economic and deep structural reforms in a number of key industries, including high-tech ones, which have made it one of the world's leading economies. At the same time, India's foreign economic relations were radically diversified.

A new generation of Indian leaders, often educated in Western universities, looks at the world pragmatically, regardless of whether they belong to a particular political party. The huge economic and military assistance that the USSR provided to India in the 1950s and 1980s has already become part of history, and the current Indian economic and political elite builds its country's foreign economic policy purely rationally, based on modern realities.

As the experience of the last two decades shows, the continuation of the Russian economy's focus on mainly raw materials leads to the fact that India, along with cooperation with Russia, is increasingly diversifying its ties, activating trade and economic cooperation with the EU, ASEAN countries, Japan, the United States, China, etc.

Despite the growth of mutual trade and investment in the 2000s, the dynamics and nature of Indian-Russian economic ties remain significantly lower than the potential, but Russia does not currently have the same strong potential as the United States and the EU to expand cooperation with India and is no longer able to meet the needs of the fast-growing Indian economy in terms of a number of high-tech areas. Accordingly, India is becoming more interested in further strengthening trade and economic ties with other countries.

Whether the new Russia will be able to preserve and enhance the rich heritage of the past, especially close economic cooperation with India, will depend mainly on improving the efficiency of the Russian economy.

¹ The first ASEAN-India Summit was held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in November 2002 - http://www.mea.gov.in/foriegn-relation.htm? ForeignRelation_212

² http://www.aseansec.org/22563.htm; http://www.aseansec.org/ 4920.htm

³ http://www.asean.org/22122.htm

⁴ http://www.mea.gov.in/foriegn-relation.htm7ForeignRelation_ 212; www.indianhighcommission.com.my/ec.php; www.asean.org/ 22122.htm

⁵ Until 2012 India has traditionally ranked 6th in the ranking of leading investors in the ASEAN economy, and in 2013 it moved to 7th - http://www.asean.org/images/resources/Statistics/2014/ ForeignDirectInvestment/Aug/Table%2026. pdf; http://www.aseansec. org/18079.htm; Prime Ministerrs (Dr. Manmohan Singh) of India Statement at the 9th ASEAN-India Summit; http://pmindia.nic.in/ speech-details.php?nodeid-1085; http://newsdawn.blogspot.com/2011/ 11/9th-india-asean-summit.html; http://www.aseansec.org/documents/ 19th%20summit/IN-CS.pdf

⁶ http://aistdf.org/

⁷ http://www.aseansec.org/5738.htm; http://www.aseansec.org/ 9317.htm

⁸ http://www.aseansec.org/18079.htm; Prime Ministerrs (Dr. Manmohan Singh)...; http://newsdawn.blogspot.com/2011/ll/9th-india-asean-summit.html; Chairman's Statement of the 9th ASEAN-India Summit, Bali, Indonesia, 19 November 2011 - http://www.aseansec.org/ documents/19th%20summit/IN-CS.pdf

^{Sedov I. A.} 9 Economic relations of India with developing countries of Asia and Africa. Moscow, Main Editorial Office of Oriental Literature. 1971. С. 171. (Sedov I.A. Ekonomocheskiye svyazi Indii s razviva-yushchimisya stranami Azii i Afriki. M., 1971) (in Russian)

¹⁰ Ibid. From 162.

¹¹ The Mekong and Ganges River Basin Cooperation Organization was established on 10 November 2000 in Laos during the first ministerial meeting at which the Vientiane Declaration of Cooperation was signed. The Organization includes India and five states located in the Mekong River basin (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand). On July 28, 2001, the Hanoi Programme of Action was approved in Hanoi, which identified priority areas of cooperation - transport and communications, tourism, education, and culture. The main goal of the Organization is to lay the foundations for further fruitful trade and investment cooperation in the region.

^{Frankel Francine R.} 12 The Breakout of China - India Strategic Rivalry in Asia and the Indian Ocean // Journal of International Affairs. Spring/Summer 2011. Vol. 64, N 2. P. 2 - http://cymcdn.com/ sites/www.india-us.org/resource/resmgr/docs/article_by_francine_ frankel.pdf

¹³ The Chiang Mai Initiative was initiated by the then Minister of Finance of Japan, K. Miyazawa, in the framework of the "ASEAN + 3" format (i.e., the ASEAN countries, as well as Japan, the Republic of Korea and the People's Republic of China) in 2000 and provides for the creation of a system of swap agreements for mutual support of national currencies. The Chiang Mai Initiative was a response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Later, in 2008, it was decided to expand the Chiang Mai Initiative and establish the so-called $120 billion Asian Monetary Reserve Fund. to combat financial crises.

^{Qi Huaigao.} 14 China's New Neighbouring Diplomacy // Contemporary International Studies. September/October 2009. P. 89 - 110.

¹⁵ ?]. 2006, N 8. (Berger Ya. Kitay - globalnaya derzhava XXI v.? // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. 2006, N 8) (in Russian)

^{Frankel Francine R.} 16 Op. cit.

¹⁷ Cit. no: Murdock Paul 1. Tiger, Tiger Burning Bright - or Not? India-US Relations in the 21st Century - http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-Ып/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA313473

¹⁸ Ibid. P. 1.

¹⁹ Economic Survey 1995/96. Government of India. Ministry of Finance. Department of Economic Affairs. Economic Division. P. S-88. S-89; Economic Survey 2010/11/ ... February 2011. P. A94, A94.

²⁰ Economic Survey 2012/13. Government of India. Ministry of Finance. Department of Economic Affairs. Economic Division. Februarv 2013. P. 161.

²¹ Sino-Indian Trade Mav Touch $50 b // The Bangladesh Observer. 21.01.2006.

²² http://en.ccei.org.in/files/India-China-Business-Investment-Opportunities-2013.pdf

²³ Sino-India Cos Partner to Develop KSEZs // The Independent. 20.05.2007.

²⁴ India Urges China to Cooperate in Oil Exploration // The Independent. 24.03.2005.

²⁵ India, China Emerge Strong Business Partners of Africa - WB // The Bangladesh Observer. 5.10.2006.

²⁶ http://www.iarex.ru/interviews/25265.html

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